Politics
China is 'booming' but needs market and domestic confidence (Winters)
China's current burdens are evidence of a major economic transition stretching out, and the country would benefit from a boost in confidence, Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said Monday.
“I think China is going through a major transition from the old economy to the new economy. If you visit the new economy, which many of you are familiar with, it is booming, absolutely booming, with rates of double-digit growth,” he told CNBC. a roundtable at the World Government Summit in Dubai.
Winters cited examples of promising economic expansion, including China's dominance of electric vehicles, as well as the growth of finance and sustainability-related industries.
Yet neither domestic savers nor foreign investors show much confidence in China's potential, the biggest problem the country will face, he said.
Foreign investors have withdrawn en masse from the country's stock markets, causing a $7 trillion decline since 2021. Analysts considerably less optimistic than Winters have warned that could be a problem. permanent withdrawal.
Trust has been tested from multiple angles. Beijing's harsh crackdown on the country's emerging tech sector has not pleased investors, while collapsing property market conditions are prompting panicked traders to leave.
A healthy real estate sector is essential for the country, as it accounts for 70% of household wealth and around a quarter of China's GDP. Although the current problems are the result of excessive debt in the sector, a lack of consumer confidence is not contributing to them.
Since the pandemic, domestic consumers have focused aggressively on saving, weighing on the country's growth and the world's only deflationary economy.
Some expect a major stimulus policy from Beijing authorities to revive confidence and encourage households to spend, but China has not yet responded as forcefully. The solutions so far have been to cut interest rates, limit stimulus and relax property ownership rules.
“They're trying to manage this transition without disrupting the financial system, which is something we've never been able to do in the West,” Winters said. “Every major industrial transition has been associated with a major depression, or a global financial crisis. They're trying to avoid that, which means it drags on. I think they'll do very well.”
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