Strategic intimacy: US seeks face-to-face rivalry with China

President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping opened a new chapter in superpower rivalry with their November meeting, adopting open lines of communication despite simmering tensions over competing geopolitical and economic interests.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to Beijing next week will highlight how that strategy holds up nearly five months later, despite unresolved issues and global conflicts that threaten to shatter relations at any moment.

“We believe that intense competition requires intense diplomacy on a range of issues, and that deep, face-to-face diplomacy is particularly important for managing tensions,” a senior administration official told reporters during 'a call on Friday, before Blinken's trip.

“The Secretary of State will make clear that the United States intends to responsibly manage our competition with the PRC. [People’s Republic of China].”

The high-level visit follows Biden and Xi's pledge last year in Woodside, California, to communicate more regularly with each other and hold regular meetings between their top officials.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit earlier this month was praised by Chinese state media, which brushed aside her criticism of Beijing's anticompetitive industrial practices in favor of promoting the skillful use of chopsticks and choices of Chinese menus by Yellen.

Blinken's trip would likely not happen unless Xi saw the benefit of promoting photos of a senior U.S. official in China.

“China is now playing nice with the Biden administration, and the Biden administration is also playing nice with China,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, author of the upcoming book, “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for tea “. 21st century.”

However, Alperovitch said that goodwill may not last long.

“China will return to its wolf warrior diplomacy by summer, when it realizes that US direct investment is not returning. »

Xi finds himself in a difficult situation at home, with an economy still struggling to recover from COVID-19 lockdowns and made worse by the United States and other allies diversifying their supply chains away from home. of the Chinese manufacturing sector. To avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods — a threat highlighted this week by Biden pushing for new tariffs on Chinese steel — these companies are relocating their operations to Southeast Asia or Mexico.

Beijing responds by encouraging the manufacturing of green technologies: electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries. The initiative has boosted economic growth but prompted warnings from the United States and Europe about “overcapacity,” which hurts domestic companies by flooding their markets with cheaper goods.

“We have emphasized and will continue to emphasize that our concern about overcapacity is not driven by anti-China sentiment or a desire to decouple,” Secretary of State Yellen said in Beijing last week. “Rather, this decision is driven by a desire to avoid disruption to the global economy and move toward a healthy economic relationship with China. »

But American companies and other interest groups are not yet abandoning China. Xi received a standing ovation at a dinner with American business leaders during his visit to San Francisco in November, and in March he hosted a delegation of American business leaders and academics in Beijing.

“President Xi Jinping pointed out that over the past two years, China-US relations have experienced setbacks and serious challenges, from which lessons should be learned,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry wrote in a summary March meetings.

“The most important agreement he reached with President Biden at last year's San Francisco meeting was on the need to stabilize and improve China-US relations.”

But Xi is also seeking to diversify, in part by deepening ties with Europe. In March, he introduced up to two weeks of visa-free travel for Europeans, and also hosted Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, NATO's presumptive future secretary general, and German Chancellor Olaf Shulz on successive visits.

“I think Chinese leaders are also aware that this is an election year and there's not much President Biden can do,” said Yawei Liu, senior China adviser at the Carter Center.

“For China, I think they understand the extent to which U.S.-China relations can be stabilized, which is why they are doing everything they can to hopefully drive a wedge between the United States and its allies… and China is one of the most important markets for Germany,” he added.

“It's a very complicated relationship, but I think the Chinese side has become more and more realistic, and realistic in the sense that, at least in 2024, the relationship between the United States and China is going to be difficult. “

Blinken, during his visit to Beijing, will raise a host of American grievances.

At the top of the list is China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine. As Washington looks to Beijing to try to contain Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons, the administration is increasingly calling for Chinese support for Putin's military.

Last week, the administration began expressing concern that China's export of non-lethal military assistance to Russia was becoming a red line for the United States – saying it looked like China feels towards Taiwan.

“What we are trying to convey to the Chinese interlocutors is that this is our strategic interest, this is the most central issue,” Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said during a town hall meeting. organized in early April by the National Committee on American Affairs. -Relations with China.

“China is getting involved in a way that they think we don’t fully understand: we understand what’s going on,” he added.

“We have told China directly that if this continues, it will impact U.S.-China relations. We will not stand idly by and say that everything is fine if Russian offensives continue and gain territory in Ukraine.”

And Congress is poised to go to war to ban one of China's most popular and profitable exports, TikTok, as part of House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-R) supplemental national security package. La.), which will be put to a vote, probably on Saturday. Biden had said earlier that if such legislation reached his desk, he would sign it. The bill also gives TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, the option to sell the social media company.

Republicans and Democrats share rare unanimity that China poses a global threat to the security and prosperity of the United States.

On Tuesday, bipartisan lawmakers on the House Select Committee on China unveiled an investigation accusing Beijing of fueling the U.S. opioid epidemic by incentivizing companies to produce chemicals for fentanyl production.

“Congress must act alongside President Biden to get CCP to take immediate action to end the fentanyl crisis,” said Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Illinois), the committee’s top Democrat. “The American people demand it. There must be responsibilities.

Xi pledged to Biden at Woodside to step up efforts to combat Chinese exports of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl. Blinken will be accompanied on his trip by the State Department's top counternarcotics official, Deputy Secretary Todd Robinson.

“We will highlight why we believe it is in China's interest to cooperate to end the flow of precursor chemicals to the United States,” the senior administration official told reporters.

And the United States has expressed concern over what it criticizes as China's provocative and destabilizing naval maneuvers in the South and East China Seas – threatening U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines.

The administration has prioritized restarting military communications with Beijing to avoid potential conflicts in those waters – channels that were cut off in August 2022 during the House Speaker's visit to Taiwan. representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with China's defense minister on Tuesday, in the first high-level engagement in nearly two years.

Biden angered Beijing by promising to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion and calling Xi a dictator. However, the Carter Center's Liu said the Biden administration's constant assurances that it adheres to the one-China policy – which does not recognize Taiwan as independent – have helped bring Beijing back on the phone and back. table.

A major meeting between US and Chinese military and naval officials took place on April 5, shortly after the last phone call between Biden and Xi, the first since the November meeting.

“In China, every time – whether it's a meeting or a phone call – they always say 'the United States has reaffirmed its one-China policy.' For China, this is the most important thing,” Liu said.

Campbell, who previously served as Biden's top official for Asia policy on the National Security Council, said recent developments were promising.

“All of this indicates that both sides, I think at this point, are committed to keeping the U.S.-China relationship on a steady, stable path,” he said at the town hall.