Politics
Voters who don't really know Donald Trump
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The oldest president in American history has a problem with the nation's youngest voters.
Support from voters under 30 has fueled every Democratic presidential victory over the past half-century; Joe Biden carried the demographics by 24 points in 2020, his largest margin among any age group. But according to several recent surveys, support for the president among young voters has fallen. Polls covering six key states released last week by The New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer found Biden losing to Donald Trump (albeit within the margin of error) among voters under 30 . The two men were effectively tied this month nationally. Fox News poll.
Those results have sparked a mix of panic and disbelief among many Democrats, who see little chance of Biden winning if he fails to win back one of the party's key districts. Still, analysts who study the youth vote say the president's support for this key group isn't as bad as Democrats tend to think, and they attribute many of his difficulties to a finding under -estimated: Most new voters know surprisingly little about Trump. . The most focused data suggests Biden maintains a double-digit lead over Trump among voters aged 18 to 29. That's smaller than four years ago, but experts say Biden has a good opportunity to increase it.
Surveys that specifically ask voters under 30, as opposed to those in which young people make up only a subset of respondents, show Biden leading Trump by double digits. In the Harvard Youth Poll, a biennial survey considered the gold standard for measuring young voters, Biden led Trump by 13 points among registered voters. That advantage was virtually identical to the margin found in surveys (one national and one in several battleground states) commissioned this spring by Voters of Tomorrow and NextGen America, two Democratic-aligned groups that target the youth vote, according to the summaries they obtained. shared with me. Pollsters place more confidence in these results because they sample larger numbers of young people and therefore have a smaller margin of error than surveys that showed less favorable results for Biden.
Still, those margins aren't close to what they were in 2020. Biden is polling worst among 18-22 year olds, most of whom were children when Trump was president. In polls and focus groups, this cohort showed little awareness of the major controversies surrounding Trump's tenure. They didn't really know who Donald Trump was, Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez, president of NextGen Americas, told me. Some of them were 10 years old when he was first elected. And if they had good parents, they were probably safe from the images of crying babies torn from their mothers at the border, or the sight of Heather Heyer run over by white supremacists in Charlottesville.
In a poll by Blueprint, a Democratic data company, less than half of registered voters under 30 said they had heard some of Trump's most inflammatory quotes, such as when he said there were very good people on both sides protesting in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or when he told members of the Proud Boys, the far-right militia, to stand back and stand idly by during a debate in 2020. Only 42% of respondents knew that, during his 2016 campaign, Trump called for a complete ban on Muslims entering the United States.
Younger voters know Trump more as a ribald commentator than a political leader. Santiago Mayer, 22, founder of the group Gen Z Voters of Tomorrow, which supported Biden, told me that his 18-year-old brother and his friends viewed Trump as more funny than threatening. They don't know much about Donald Trump's agenda, and Donald Trump is an entertaining character, Mayer said. They gravitate toward him not because of their political beliefs but out of pure curiosity.
A related problem for Biden is that young voters also don't know much about what he has done. The president has kept a lower profile than his two predecessors, and young people as a group are not as civically engaged as older Americans. As a result, pollsters have found that younger voters are less aware of Biden's accomplishments, even on issues they consider important to them. Many of them don't know, for example, that he signed the largest climate bill in history (the Inflation Reduction Act) or the most significant change to climate change laws. guns for decades (the bipartisan Safer Communities Act), or that he forgave about $160 billion. in student debt. The more they pay attention, the more likely they are to approve and vote for Biden, John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvards Institute of Politics, told me. The biggest challenge for Biden, he said, is that an overwhelming number of young people don't appreciate the extent to which he has kept the promises he made in 2020. I hear this in every city .
Other factors also explain the divide between Biden and young voters. When Blueprint asked young voters what worried them most about a possible second Biden term, their top concern was that he was too old for the job. However, next on the list was inflation. Young adults are also less economically stable than their older peers and more cost-sensitive. So although campus protests against Israel's military campaign in Gaza have dominated the headlines, polls show that inflation weighs much more heavily on Biden's support among younger voters, and is a bigger issue for them than for older people. Young voters simply think Biden doesn't have his eye on the ball economically when it comes to inflation, Blueprints senior pollster Evan Roth Smith told me. It is surprising but not inexplicable that voters under 30 associate lower prices with Donald Trump. But it is, because there is no denying that prices were lower and the inflation rate was lower when Donald Trump was president.
I think people would forgive the age if they thought Biden could bring prices down, Smith added.
Still, Biden has advantages over Trump that could help him win back young voters between now and November. Voters under 30 have opted out of both parties and are more likely to register as independents than in the past. But they remain more progressive than the electorate as a whole, and in recent polls, they align much more on these issues with Biden than with Trump. In 2022, Tzintzn Ramirez said, young voters expressed antipathy toward the Democratic Party in polls but ended up supporting Democratic candidates in the midterms. She and other analysts see a similar dynamic at work now, where young voters are telling pollsters they are undecided or registering their support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates to protest Biden and Trump. Surveys show this is especially true for young men and voters of color, many of whom have been embittered toward Biden. But support for third-party alternatives generally wanes as elections approach. Young voters also tend to make their choices later in the campaign.
Perhaps the best data point for Biden is that he is little worse off among young voters than President Barack Obama was at this point in his 2012 re-election bid. Like Biden, Obama won big among voters under 30 in his first presidential victory, but struggled to communicate his record to them. Della Volpe told me that in a Harvard poll, Obama had the same 13-point advantage over Mitt Romney among registered voters in spring 2012 as Biden has over Trump today. He would nearly double that margin by the fall, thanks in large part to an aggressive advertising campaign that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor and businessman as an out-of-touch and greedy financier.
Donald Trump seems to need no introduction to voters, except those who were too young or too ignorant to fully remember his presidency. Giving them a well-funded history lesson might be Biden's best hope for a second term.
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Sources 2/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/biden-young-voters-polling-2024/678436/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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