Donald Trump jury will 'convict' in New York trial, legal analyst predicts

Legal analyst and attorney Glenn Kirschner predicted Friday that the jury would “convict Donald Trump” in his hush-hush criminal trial.

In just three days, the prosecution and defense will deliver their closing remarks in Trump's trial, with the jury then beginning its deliberations to determine whether or not the former president is guilty.

Following an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office, Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was indicted in March 2023 on 34 counts of falsifying business records, accused of trying to hide hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels by former President Trump. lawyer and “fixer” Michael Cohen during Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Daniels had alleged she had an affair with Trump in 2006, which he denied. The former president has pleaded not guilty to all charges and said the charges against him were politically motivated.

In a video released Friday on his YouTube channel, Kirschner, a former assistant U.S. attorney and frequent critic of the former president, said: “I believe the jury, using common sense, will see exactly who is responsible for these crimes, who benefited from these crimes, and I believe they will convict Donald Trump and hold him accountable. »

Newsweek contacted Kirschner by email for comment on Saturday.

In a criminal trial, a jury must find the defendant guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, otherwise the defendant is found not guilty. The jury must submit a unanimous vote, otherwise it is considered a hung jury.

Kirschner said in a YouTube video Wednesday that there is a “mountain” of corroborating evidence against the former president, referencing testimony, business records and reimbursement checks.

“The evidence has proven, my friends, beyond a doubt, not just beyond a reasonable doubt, beyond a doubt, that Donald Trump committed these crimes,” he said.

Newsweek contacted several legal analysts for comment via email on Saturday.

Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media outside Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21 in New York. Legal analyst and attorney Glenn Kirschner predicted Friday that the jury will “convict Donald Trump”… Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21 in New York. Legal analyst and attorney Glenn Kirschner predicted Friday that the jury would “convict Donald Trump” in his hush-hush criminal trial. More from Curtis Means-Pool/Getty Images

Other legal analysts weighed in on the jury predictions, with some favoring the possibility of a hung jury instead of a conviction or acquittal. Given the demographics of the jury in largely Democratic New York City, many suggest an acquittal is unlikely. Many experts have pointed out the near-impossibility of making informed predictions without being present in the courtroom.

Criminal defense attorney and former federal prosecutor Rocco Cipparone told Newsweek in a telephone interview Saturday morning that “if you're not in a courtroom on a daily basis and you can't observe the nuances of what happens, including the credibility of witnesses and things like that…it's hard to predict.

He also described the three possible outcomes: acquittal, conviction and hanging.

When discussing the possibility of a conviction, Cipparone told Newsweek: “In many ways, to convict, the jury would have to accept Cohen's credibility, which is a big question. He has a lot of admitted and unadmitted baggage .” Cohen is a disbarred attorney who has previously pleaded guilty to tax evasion, bank fraud, campaign finance violations and lying to Congress.

If a jury convicts, Cipparone explained that the judge then sets a sentencing date and between those dates, “generally, at least in a case like this and certainly in many white-collar cases, you will see motions to overturn the jury's verdict.

But in this case, Cipparone said, “If I predict based on the limited external information I have, a hung jury is the most likely outcome.” »

In the case of a full acquittal, with a unanimous jury verdict of not guilty, Cipparone said the former president “is literally free to go at this point. It's over, it's done, “This particular charge can never be brought to New York again. He is free and clear and can just walk out of the courtroom.”

Meanwhile, Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney and law professor at the University of Michigan, said in an email to Newsweek on Thursday that “it's always difficult to predict what juries might do because they come each in court with their own experiences and worldviews, and because they had the advantage of seeing every moment of the trial up close.”

She added: “But the prosecution has certainly provided sufficient evidence from which a reasonable jury could find guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Former federal and state prosecutor Elie Honig wrote Friday morning in Intelligencer: “A guilty verdict remains likely in my opinion, but the chances of a hung jury (and resulting mistrial) are much higher than in a normal case. ” since the evidence against Trump is “average – neither overwhelming nor blatantly deficient, but somewhere toward the lower end of that spectrum.”

Honig, like several legal analysts, including Cipparone, noted the difficulty of turning the case over to the prosecution's key witness, Cohen.

Jonathan Turley, a legal analyst and attorney who is also a professor at George Washington University Law School, told Newsweek in an email Friday afternoon: “I believe a hung jury is a real possibility. .. I would currently put a hung jury as the most likely outcome of the three outcomes.

“I agree that this is the worst possible jury for Trump,” Turley wrote, likely because of the former president's previous polling in New York. However, he added, “I have often seen jurors overcome their biases and I hope that these jurors will save the integrity of New York's legal system with at least one hung jury.”

“I don’t see any real possibility of acquittal,” which would mean exonerating Trump, “whereas conviction is clearly a possibility,” he added.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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