Trump unlikely to pass immigration law to admit all college graduates

Donald Trump speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference on August 6, 2022, in Dallas,… [+] Texas. In a recent podcast interview, Donald Trump said he was in favor of granting green cards to all foreign graduates from American universities. For a variety of reasons, if elected, Trump is unlikely to pass a law granting green cards to all foreign graduates from American schools. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

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Despite his government's attitude towards blocking highly qualified immigrants, Donald Trump declared himself in favor of granting green cards to all foreign graduates from American universities. His statement during a podcast interview attracted considerable attention. During four years as president, Trump never proposed increasing admissions of college-educated immigrants or automatically awarding green cards to all international students who graduate from U.S. universities. His administration has adopted numerous restrictions on H-1B visa holders and employment-based immigrants, including banning their entry in 2020. Expected opposition from his immigration advisers and other factors make it unlikely that , if elected, Trump either passes legislation or continues as a candidate. serious legislative initiative granting green cards to all foreign graduates of American universities.

The podcast interview

On June 19, 2024, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump recorded a podcast interview with venture capitalists on the show All-In. What I want to do and what I will do is if you get a college degree, I think you should automatically get, as part of your degree, a green card to be able to stay in this country, Trump said. And that also includes junior colleges, anyone who graduated from college. You go there for two or four years. Trump promised to solve the problem on day one.

In response to media interest, the Trump campaign released a statement from Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt: President Trump has described the most aggressive vetting process in U.S. history, aimed at excluding all communists, radical Islamists, Hamas supporters, America haters and public accusations. He believes that only after such verification should we retain the most qualified graduates who can make significant contributions to America. This would only apply to the most carefully selected college graduates, who would never undercut American wages or workers.

Under current law, the federal government can block the admission of public charges, Communist Party members and supporters of terrorism.

Trump breaks high-skilled immigration record as president

Donald Trump has often said he wants merit-based immigration, but while in office, he and his team showed little interest in admitting even the most qualified foreign nationals to America. His administration waged what analysts saw as a regulatory war against businesses, international students and H-1B visa holders. (See here.)

H-1B visas are often the only practical way for highly skilled foreign nationals, including international students, to work long-term in the United States. Due to the time required to obtain an employment-based green card, foreign nationals must normally first obtain an H-1B visa or other temporary status.

After Donald Trump became president in 2017, his administration's policies significantly increased the denial rate for H-1B initial employment applications (usually new hires are counted toward the annual H-1B cap) to 24 % in FY 2018 and to 21% in FY 2019. Paperwork in the form of requests for evidence has skyrocketed. In 2020, after a legal settlement forced U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to end several Trump administration practices, denial rates fell to 2%, close to their historical average.

H-1B applications for continued employment increased by up to 12% in fiscal years 2018 and 2019. Denials of extensions for existing employees caused many professionals to leave the country. As with initial job applications, the legal settlement caused H-1B applications for continued employment to drop to 2 percent.

In his final year in office, Trump went further, blocking the admission to the United States of high-skilled temporary visa holders and immigrants seeking jobs. In June 2020, Trump used his authority under Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act to issue a proclamation suspending the entry of H-1B, L-1, and other visa holders temporary visa holders. A similar proclamation issued in April 2020 barred the entry of almost all categories of immigrants, including those based on employment. No other president had used his authority so radically.

Practical and political obstacles to Trump's declaration becoming law

If elected, Donald Trump is unlikely to pass a law granting green cards to all foreign graduates of American universities. His longtime immigration adviser, Stephen Miller, and others would almost certainly work to prevent such a proposal from becoming law. This is especially true since this policy could increase the number of immigrants to America by a million per year. Miller has long worked to reduce legal immigration, including the entry of highly skilled foreign nationals. By enacting various administrative restrictions, Miller reduced the number of immigrants admitted while Trump was president. He expressed admiration for the Immigration Act of 1924, which ended most immigration to the United States.

In 2017, after Trump outlined a deal with Democratic congressional leaders to protect Dreamers (young people without legal status) in exchange for border security measures, news reports indicated that Miller and d Others had worked to undermine the agreement. For weeks, top aides to the president have been working behind the scenes to overturn a DACA deal reached between President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the Daily Beast reported. And White House senior policy adviser Stephen Miller has spearheaded the anti-deficiency campaign behind the scenes.

According to the book Border Wars: Inside Trumps Assault on Immigration by New York Times journalists Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Michael D. Shear, Miller helped convince Trump to approve Sen. Tom Cotton's RAISE Act by arguing that the bill does not not reduce immigration. The bill reduced legal immigration by 50%.

If Trump's statement on granting green cards to foreign graduates from U.S. universities were turned into a bill, Miller or other immigration opponents could defeat it. The easiest way would be to tie passage to provisions that Democrats would never support, like elements of HR 2, the Border Security Act, which passed the House of Representatives in May 2023 without any vote Democratic. This would encourage Democrats to prevent the bill from passing the Senate by filibustering the bill. Tying the proposal to other measures that Democrats oppose, such as eliminating all family-based immigration, would be another approach. There would also be Republicans who would oppose the measure. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) criticized Trump's statement on green cards for college graduates.

In 2022, during negotiations over the CHIPS and Science Act, Senator Charles Grassley (R-IA) blocked the inclusion of an exemption from green card limits for many international students graduating from U.S. universities in the fields scientific and technological. This provision, which had passed the House of Representatives, constituted an important immigration reform, but more modest than that mentioned by Trump during his podcast interview. Given its influence within the Republican caucus, the measure would likely become law if Donald Trump had ruled in favor of it at the time.

An attempt by Trump to please the podcast's venture capitalist hosts, one of whom hosted a fundraiser for him in Silicon Valley, may explain the former presidents' eagerness to advocate a sweeping immigration proposal. His pledge on admitting foreign college graduates came after podcast host Jason Calacanis asked Trump if he could promise to give us more capacity to import the world's best and brightest to America. Trump promised he would. Netizens on social media pointed out that Trump made similar comments on August 18, 2015, when he tweeted: “When foreigners attend our great universities and want to stay in the United States, they should not be kicked out of our country. After being elected president, Donald Trump did not continue this policy.

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