Robert F Kennedy Jr's campaign draws to a close as Donald Trump hints at his support

Donald Trump has said he would be honoured by the endorsement of Robert F Kennedy Jr, as the third-party candidate is expected to end a presidential campaign that threatened to siphon votes from the Republican candidate and his rival Kamala Harris.

Kennedy has fallen in the polls since Harris took over from US President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, and his idiosyncratic campaign is virtually out of money.

“If I had his endorsement, I would be honored,” Trump told Fox News Thursday. “RFK would be the most important thing.”

Kennedy, a member of the Democratic dynasty that included his father, Robert F. Kennedy, and his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy, said he planned to speak on his future Friday from Phoenix, the Arizona capital. Trump is scheduled to hold a rally two hours later in Glendale, a Phoenix suburb, where he will be joined by a special guest, according to his campaign.

Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy's running mate, said on a podcast Tuesday that their campaign had two options: stay in the race or leave immediately and ally with Trump. She added that continuing their campaign would strengthen Harris because more Kennedy supporters were likely Trump voters.

According to a FiveThirtyEight average, Kennedy is now estimated at 4.7% of the vote, well behind Harris’ 47% and Trump’s 43.7%. Kennedy was estimated at 8.6% just before Biden withdrew, after enjoying double-digit support in early July.

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Kennedy was seen as a bigger threat to Biden than he is to Harris today, with the Democratic National Committee for the first time establishing a team to crush third-party candidates.

“We were very concerned about Kennedy from the beginning because of his name and the appeal of his campaigns to low-engaged voters,” said Matt Bennett, executive vice president of public affairs at the Democratic think tank Third Way. That threat is now averted with Biden’s departure, he said, adding that the Third Ways coalition was pleased with Kennedy’s expected departure.

It is not yet clear whether Kennedy supporters would switch allegiance to Trump, vote for Harris instead or stay home on Election Day.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, released Saturday, showed Trump with a slight edge, with 35% of Kennedy supporters saying they would vote for the former president and 34% saying they would back Harris in a head-to-head matchup.

But Harris has gained ground among Kennedy supporters. In July, 48 percent of them said they would vote for Trump, compared with 23 percent for the vice president.

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Kennedy built his political brand around being an anti-establishment candidate and is best known for his anti-vaccine stances. The environmental advocate and cryptocurrency advocate has cast himself as a saboteur of the war machine… for Wall Street and big agriculture, big tech, big telecom, big pharma, and the corporate media and all corrupt politicians and corporations.

He is a known conspiracy theorist, notably spreading allegations that the CIA was involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy, raising the risk that a closer relationship between him and Trump could alienate moderate voters.

His long-shot campaign has been punctuated by bizarre moments. In May, Kennedy said neurologists had found a dead worm in his brain that had eaten part of the organ. This month, he admitted to dumping a dead bear in the middle of Manhattan’s Central Park nearly a decade ago.

Kennedy successfully got his name on the ballot in 24 states, although court documents related to his unsuccessful battle to appear on the ballot in New York revealed that he owned unconventional pets, including ravens, hawks and an emu.

Kennedy was funded primarily by billionaire Tim Mellon, who hails from the prominent American banking family, and Shanahan, a lawyer and ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Mellon, who gave $115 million to a pro-Trump political action committee, contributed $25 million to a Kennedy fundraising group. Shanahan gave $15 million but asked for her money back when their campaign failed.

According to a federal filing, Kennedy's campaign raised $5.6 million in July but spent $7.3 million. It had $3.9 million in cash at the end of the month but owed $3.5 million for security and travel.

Nicole Shanahan, left, Kennedy's running mate, was one of his campaign's biggest donors Laure Andrillon/Reuters

Several independent candidates have attempted to break the stranglehold that Democrats, Republicans, and their affiliates have had on the presidency since Whig Millard Fillmore held power from 1850 to 1853. Despite their lack of historical success, they can still influence elections by stealing votes from a major party candidate, which can tip the balance in close contests.

Following Theodore Roosevelt's campaign with the Progressive Party in 1912, Ross Perot ran the most successful independent presidential campaign in United States history, facing Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush in 1992. Perot did not win a single state but received nearly 19% of the popular vote and is considered instrumental in Clinton's victory.

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Many Democrats blame Green Party candidates Ralph Nader and Jill Stein for contributing to the defeats of Al Gore and Hillary Clinton in 2000 and 2016, respectively. Kennedy, Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver are the third-party candidates still running in the 2024 race.

Rahna Epting, executive director of the progressive organization MoveOn, warned that Democrats cannot ignore the lessons of 2020. [and] 2016 because this race will be won or lost on the margins.

West and Stein remain committed to getting on the ballot in key states, she said, and they can also help swing the election in Donald Trump's favor.

Additional reporting by Alex Rogers in Chicago

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