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Vladimir Putin and Iran discuss Zangezur corridor

 


Russia and Iran have been in a recent spat over the Zangezur Corridor, a transportation route linking Azerbaijan to the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan, establishing a new route connecting Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Many high-ranking Russian officials have expressed support for the corridor in recent days, which will connect Azerbaijan to Russia and Turkey, bypassing Armenian checkpoints. Iran is extremely unhappy with Russia’s support for the corridor, as it would sever the geographical connection between Yerevan and Tehran if the corridor were under Azerbaijani sovereignty rather than Armenian rule.

An Iranian foreign ministry official told Middle East Eye: “As the supreme leader stressed, our border with Armenia must remain intact and any corridor must be established with this in mind… Our military might would only be deployed in response to any attempt to cut Iran’s border with Armenia.”

In the face of such Iranian threats, the strong partnership between Baku and Moscow exists despite Azerbaijan's multi-vector policy, which seeks to balance the West's interests in Ukraine with the desire to avoid confrontation with Russia as a former Soviet bloc country.

This poses major challenges for Tehran. On the one hand, Baku is helping the West get rid of Russian oil and gas by presenting itself as a viable alternative capable of ensuring Europe's energy security. On the other, Baku supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and has sent humanitarian aid to kyiv.

But Baku is not doing this to prevent Putin from maintaining relations with it, because Aliyev's government does not consider its alliance with the West as a reason to self-destruct. Azerbaijanis have seen how much the Ukrainian people have suffered because of their leaders' desire to join NATO and do not believe that NATO membership is worth it. That is why Azerbaijan is content to be a mere NATO ally and not a member.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Kaliningrad Region Acting Governor Alexei Besprozvannykh at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence near Moscow, Russia, August 14, 2024. (SPUTNIK/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/POOL VIA REUTERS)

Because of their understanding of what is at stake for them as a former Soviet bloc country if they oppose Putin, the Azerbaijanis have allowed Putin to limit the damage to his public image by meeting with several lower-level Azerbaijani officials and signing a few inconsequential agreements, since saying no to Putin would have put Baku in an uncomfortable position.

At the same time, Putin's recent visit to Baku has strengthened Azerbaijan at the expense of Iran and its proxies, as demonstrated by Russia's support for the Zangezur corridor, which is of crucial importance to the Azerbaijani people.

The attempt to overthrow the Armenian government

As Tehran fumes over Putin’s support for the use of the Zangezur corridor, Russia is trying to overthrow the Armenian government and replace it with a friendlier regime. In a recent statement, the Investigative Committee of the Republic of Armenia said that seven people would be charged with “preparing to usurp power…using violence and the threat of violence to seize control of the government.”

According to Politico, six Armenians were recruited to undergo three months of training in Russia and were paid a monthly salary of 220,000 rubles ($2,377) while they learned how to use weapons. They also reportedly underwent background checks and polygraph tests to determine their allegiance, before being transferred to the Arbat military base in Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia.

Moscow apparently wanted to replace Pashinyan's government because it withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which the Armenian government considers “a threat to the security, existence and independence of Armenia.” Armenia is one of the founding members of the CSTO, which was established in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to Russia, the CSTO includes Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.


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For decades, Russia supported Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, allowing Armenians to control Karabakh and seven Azerbaijani districts in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions for 30 years. Putin’s ties with the Caucasian country began to deteriorate after Pashinyan’s government came to power in 2018; this trend continued after Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War and the military operation that followed. Armenians felt that the Russians were not supportive enough in that conflict.

Although Pashinyan’s government is closer to the West and Iran than it is to Moscow, it is essential to remember that trade relations between Armenia and Russia remain strong, despite the recent coup attempt. Armenia remains the main means of circumventing the West’s anti-Russian sanctions.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk cited the following figures during his recent visit to Yerevan: “In 2023, the volume of trade between Armenia and Russia increased by 55.8%, reaching $7.4 billion. This year, the growth rate is even higher; in the first half of the year, the trade turnover amounted to $8.4 billion, and by the end of the year we may reach $14-16 billion. For comparison, in 2020, this volume was only $2.3 billion.”

According to Overchuk, by the end of 2024, the volume of trade between Armenia and Russia may reach $14-16 billion. Overchuk noted that economic cooperation between the two countries is developing dynamically and covers almost all sectors of the economy.

It is obvious that the Armenian economy, given its small volume, does not have its own resources for such a volume of trade. A paradoxical situation arises when on the one hand the West finances Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression and on the other hand allows Armenia to profit from this very aggression, in fact encouraging re-export projects through Armenia, thus allowing the Russian economy to continue the war against Ukraine.

At the same time, the American communications agency Edelman openly works for the Armenian oligarch of Russia Ruben Vardanyan. It is noteworthy that, while commenting on the abnormal growth of trade between Armenia and Russia, as well as the growing military cooperation between these two countries, the US State Department officially called it “Armenia's sovereign right” in September.

Some Western commentators, however, have criticized Putin's recent visit to Azerbaijan, claiming that Baku is adopting a pro-Russian and anti-Western stance while remaining silent on ongoing trade between Armenia and Russia. This is a double standard.

The author is a Middle East specialist and commentator on the region.

Sources

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2/ https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-821758

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