Here's Who's Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls

Top line

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains seemingly a stalemate with just over two weeks until the election, according to at least six polls from the past week that show Harris with a slight advantage and three others who find that Trump has a slight advantage. a slim lead, even though the key states are virtually tied.

Former President Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro… [+] Coliseum on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Getty Images Key Facts

Trump is ahead 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters Wednesday, a shift in Trump's favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey (margin of error of 2.5, and respondents were able to choose third-party candidates).

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those leaning toward a single candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2. 5), and it's up one point, 49% to 48%, excluding the so-called lean.

Trump leads between 49 and 48 percent with the skinny, and is tied at 47 percent without the skinny, if respondents can select third-party candidates, according to HarrisX.

In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters conducted Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a three-point advantage, 47 percent to 44 percent, over Trump among respondents who said they definitely or probably planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose others and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents given the option to choose others, not sure or would not vote, a drop of one point in his lead compared to the group's previous poll carried out from October 12 to 15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in the weekly Morning Consults poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week's results but down from her 51% to 45% lead in both polls from before last week.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, gives Harris a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points using rounded numbers, within the poll's two-point margin of error); Last week, a Reuters/Ipsos poll also gave him a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters conducted Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump narrowed margins since the group's last survey in August. which gave Harris a five-point lead.

Harris also led Trump by a single point (49 to 48%) in an Emerson Colleges poll of likely voters released Friday, after Harris posted a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in points in August.

Trump regained the lead over Harris in a Fox News poll released last week that found him up 50 to 48 percent among likely voters, a change from Harris' 50 to 48 percent advantage in September, after Trump led 50% to 49% in August.

Harris has erased Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her advantage has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the average weighted by FiveThirtyEights surveys.

Who is the favorite to win the election, Harris or Trump?

Trump is favored 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris, according to election forecasts from FiveThirtyEights. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a slight 53.1/46.6 advantage, but wrote recently that he has never seen an election in which the forecast was longer around 50/50.

Large number

0.6. That's the number of points by which Harris leads Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEights average shows Harris ahead by 1.8 points, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.6 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Fare Against Trump in Swing States?

Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. That means Trump would win the election if state-level polls prove accurate, but all seven swing states are in the low single digits and most have margins less than a percentage point.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they didn't know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but it remains significantly lower than previous leads by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and by 50 points in the 2016 poll. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

What is the impact of the debate on the polls?

Pre-debate surveys found Harris' rising poll numbers appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters conducted September 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, in down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show that the majority of respondents think Harris won the debate, but not enough to have a significant impact on the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released September 19 found that the majority of voters in every demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris' September 10 debate performance, with 67 percent saying that she had done well, compared to 40% who said the same thing. about Trump. Harris was up 52 to 46 percent among likely voters and 51 to 47 percent among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her lead of six points among likely voters. in late August and early August, according to ABC/Ipsos surveys, even though 63 percent of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Key context

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced her intention to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his choice for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris' rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today. today, while Republican enthusiasm remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released August 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% are still deciding (Forbes)

Swing State Polls for 2024 Elections: Latest Surveys Show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Updated) (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Nevada Polls: Trump up 1 point in latest survey as Harris battles with Latinos (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Georgia polls: Trump leads latest poll, but undecided voters could tip the scales (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Arizona: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan Polls 2024: Harris Narrowly Leads in Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Pennsylvania Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State in Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Wisconsin: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in North Carolina: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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