Russia's Brics summit shows determination for new world order, but internal divisions will buy West time

THE recent Brics summit in the Russian city of Kazan was less notable for what happened at the meeting than for what happened before, on the sidelines, or not at all. Among the notable things that haven't happened is further expansion of the organization.

Since the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the 2023 Brics summit in Johannesburg, which almost doubled the number of member countries compared to the first five (Brazil, Russia , India, China and South Africa), further enlargement has been blocked.

Argentina, also invited in 2023, denied to join. Saudi Arabia, another guest in 2023, has also not followed up on its offer to become a member. Its de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, was among the notable absentees in Kazan.

And Kazakhstan, Russia's largest neighbor in Central Asia, decided not to join shortly before the summit. This angered Russia, leading to a swift ban on imports of a range of agricultural products from Kazakhstan in 2007. reprisals.

Although the invitees declined the opportunity to join Brics, a long list of candidates were not offered membership. According to a statement According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting of top Brics security officials in September, 34 countries expressed interest in closer relations with the Brics in one form or another.

This appears to be a substantial increase in interest in Brics membership compared to a year ago, when South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor listed 23 candidates before the 2023 summit.

But the fact that, since then, only six invitations have been extended and four accepted indicates that formal expansion of the organization, at least for now, has been hampered by the inability of current members to forge consensus on the next round of expansion and the reluctance of some guests to associate with the organization.

Meetings on the sidelines

THE summit declaration may offer little substance. But there were a number of bilateral meetings before and on the sidelines of the gathering that are more indicative of the Brics direction. Perhaps most importantly, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first meeting. face-to-face discussion in five years.

This is a remarkable change from just a few months ago, when tensions between New Delhi and Beijing were intense enough for Modi to cancel his Congress appearance. summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Astana, Kazakhstan. However, with a agreement now concluded on their countries long-standing border conflictthe two most populous and, in terms of GDP, economically most powerful members BRICS have the possibility of rebuild their strained relationships.

A warming of relations between China and India could generate more momentum for the BRICS to implement their ambitious agenda to develop and ultimately implement a vision for a new world order. This would implicitly imply a shift in leadership of the Bric countries from China and Russia to China and India, and with it, potentially a shift from an anti-Western to a non-Western agenda.

This is of course something that exercises Putin. He recognized this when he referred to the South and East of the planet in his Remarks during the opening meeting of the summit. He also stressed that it was important to maintain balance and ensure that the effectiveness of the BRICS mechanisms is not diminished.

In his own bilateral meetings before and during the summit, Putin insisted that, despite Western efforts, Russia was far from isolated on the world stage. Individual meetings with XI, Modipresident of South Africa, Cyrille Ramaphosaand the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyangave Putin the opportunity to promote his own vision of the BRICS as a counterpoint to the US-led West.

This may be a view shared in Russia, China and Iran, as well as North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela, which are not members of the Brics. But many countries in the South, notably India and Brazil, are unlikely to sign up to this program. They will strive to make the most of their Brics membership while maintaining close ties with the West.

Lack of coherent agenda

India is the most important player in the Brics when it comes to the balance between East and West. Turkey, a NATO member, is the external equivalent. The country's president, Recep Tayyip Erdoan, visited Kazan and did not hesitate to meet with his president for an hour. dear friend Poutine.

The relationship between Moscow and Ankara is hectic and complex in a wide range of crises, from the South Caucasus to Syria, Libya and Sudan. Yet on perhaps the most controversial issue of all, Russian aggression against Ukraine, Turkey has always maintained open channels of communication with Russia and remains the only NATO power capable of doing so.

Read more: Turkey tries to negotiate power between East and West as it bids to join Brics

The fact that there has been relatively little public pressure from official Western sources on Erdoan to stop is likely a reflection of the fact that such channels of communication are still valued in the West. This, as well as continued NATO cooperation with India, demonstrates a hedging strategy on the part of the West. India cooperates with the United States, Australia and Japan in what is called Quadruple Group of Nations on security in the Indo-Pacific, and he maintained political dialogue with NATO since 2019.

Turkey and India may not agree with the West on all issues. But this is also not the case for the Eastern global camp within the Brics, and especially not for Russia. If nothing else, this limits the ability of the BRICS to develop a coherent agenda, deepen integration and, ultimately, mount a credible challenge to the existing order.

Relying on India and Turkey to put pressure on the West and undermine the BRICS is, however, not a credible long-term strategy. The bricks may have achieved little as an organization, but the Kazan summit declaration indicates that its key players continue to aspire to more.

However, as the organization's expansion dynamics indicate, there is also an internal battle within Brics over its future direction. This in turn creates the space and time needed for the West to exert a more positive and constructive influence in the ongoing process of reshaping the international order.

The global East may be beyond redemption, but there is still a huge opportunity to reconnect with the global South.