Victory in 21st century conflicts

Over the past few weeks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has traveled across Europe and America to brief political leaders on his victory plan, intended to end the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine. Zelensky also gave speeches to the European Council and, on October 16, his own parliament.

Zelensky highlighted the following critical point regarding his plan: we must implement the Victory Plan to force Russia to participate in the Peace Summit and be ready to end the war. The Victory Plan is therefore a means to an end. Zelensky and his advisors understand that even if a military victory is achieved, it is politics that will determine the outcome of this war. For Ukraine, the desired outcome of the Victory Plan is to force Russia to the negotiating table to achieve a result. Zelensky's peace formula.

President Zelensky recently noted that for some, the word victory has become an uncomfortable word.

Thus, victory in war is not limited to military success. In The evolution of strategyBeatrice Heuser propose that military victory cannot result in the lasting achievement of war objectives and that the most important objective of any war must be to establish a just and lasting peace. Victory is nothing if it does not lead to such peace.

Victory in modern warfare is about winning the peace as much as winning the war. The first US military successes in Iraq in 1991 and 2003, then in Afghanistan in 2001, followed by the long-term instability that followed, demonstrate that military successes do not always guarantee a favorable and lasting political solution. Russian interventions in Afghanistan and its first war in Chechnya are other examples.

The concept of victory, or the word itself, is one that Western politicians and academics like to avoid. In 2009, US President Barack Obama said he was always afraid to use the word victory, because, you know, it brings up the idea of ​​Emperor Hirohito coming down and signing his surrender to MacArthur. Like Heuser wrote: For most Western liberals of the early 21st century, victory seems to have little value in itself, because the price at which it could be obtained seems disproportionate to the gains.

While it may be a loaded term for contemporary Western politicians and academics, leaders of authoritarian powers know it well.

Military successes do not always guarantee a favorable and lasting political solution.

In its 2021 speech On the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party, President Xi Jinping stressed that the victory of the democratic revolution ended China's history as a semi-colonial and semi-feudal society. The concept of victory is also mentioned in the Chinese Communist Party's White Paper on Taiwan published in 2022, as well as in Xi's speeches at the 19th and 20th National Congresses of the Communist Party of China. Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted Russia's historic victories to inspire national unity and pride. Putin used the term to describe the annexation of Crimea in 2014, as well as during the more recent war against Ukraine.

Victory is also a relevant concept for Australian national security practitioners. While Australia may not be in the middle of a major war, it is only in the early stages of what will likely be a significant, long-term confrontation with authoritarian powers. Like 2024 National Defense Strategy As the report notes, the optimism of the end of the Cold War has been replaced by uncertainty and tensions related to entrenched and growing strategic competition between the United States and China. This competition is framed by an intense competition of stories and values. Competition takes place on military and non-military levels, notably economic and diplomatic.

THE National Defense Strategy outlines the elements of Australia's military approach to this deteriorating security environment, but neither this nor any other government strategy contains the nation's unified theory of what success will look like over the decades to come. come. To do this, the Australian government should outline a holistic theory of victory in its strategy for how Australia will maintain and strengthen its prosperity and security in the face of increasing authoritarian aggression. And to achieve this, policymakers and leaders will have to reaccustom themselves to the concept of victory.

Zelensky recently noted that for some, victory has become an uncomfortable word. And in reality, we understand that victory is not easy to achieve. But it is also a fundamental intellectual construct for Western nations if they are to successfully confront the mighty forces of the new wealthy, techno-authoritarian powers seeking to usurp the post-World War II order.