A quick end to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. A hard reset with China. The threat of punitive tariffs against the United States' major trading partners. Seamless reassessments of key security alliances.
President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House promises to be one of the most unpredictable and potentially disruptive presidential terms of the modern era.
By its transactional design, Trump's early US outlook is expected to once again judge allies on their defense spending and trade balance with the United States, while rejecting adversaries' established views.
Ukraine
If I win, as president-elect, I will have a done deal, guaranteed.
DONALD Trump, September 2024
Trump has said that if he wins, he will end the war between Russia and Ukraine before his inauguration in January. In a September interviewhe declined to share further details.
If I give you these plans, I won't be able to use them, they will be very unsuccessful. You know, part of it is a surprise, right? he said.
Trump's running mate JD Vance suggested that a Trump administration would aim for Russia and Ukraine to freeze fighting along existing front lines, with the boundary line becoming heavily fortified so that Russia would not invade again.
Such a deal would be deeply unpopular among Ukraine's leaders. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected any territorial concessions. But kyiv officials fear Trump will end all military aid, forcing them to capitulate on Moscow's terms.
Vance said the plan would give Russia a guarantee of neutrality vis-Ã -vis Kiev, which would not join NATO. Ukraine would retain its independence, with Germany and other European countries helping to rebuild it.
Europe
You don't pay your bills, you don't get any protection. It's very simple
DONALD Trump, February 2024
Trump will expect NATO member countries to meet or exceed their defense spending target of 2% of GDP, something he repeatedly called for on the campaign trail, while also appearing to confuse that goal with payments made directly to the defense alliance.
At a campaign event in February, he added: One of the presidents of a great country stood up [and] said: Well, sir, if we don't pay and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us?
I said, 'You didn't pay, you're a delinquent,'” Trump said. No, I won't protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever they want.
Analysts expect Trump to rethink America's presence in Europe more broadly.
Victoria Coates, a former senior Trump National Security Council official and now a fellow at the Heritage Foundation think tank, said it was entirely accurate to believe that a second Trump presidency would end the era where the United States was seen as the guarantor of security. the security of the Western world.
Coates told the Europeans: How about doing what you said you were going to do 10 years ago and spending 2 percent of GDP on defense? And actually there should be three.
The Middle East
I encouraged [Netanyahu] to end this
DONALD TRUMP, August 2024
Trump is expected to move away from the Biden administration's approach to Israel's wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Former aides said he would be more supportive of Israeli military campaigns and would be unlikely to use U.S. military aid as leverage to influence the actions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump told Netanyahu he wanted a quick end to the war, but also that the Israeli leader should do what it takes to defeat Hamas and Hezbollah.
Once in office, Trump is expected to focus on confronting Iran and normalizing relations between Israel and other Gulf Arab countries, expanding the so-called Abraham Accords that began during his last term.
During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran and instituted a maximum pressure campaign, with tough sanctions aimed at pushing Iran to accept a more comprehensive accord on nuclear weapons. end both its nuclear program and its destabilizing actions through its nuclear program. regional agents.
Since then, Iran has resumed enriching the uranium needed to develop nuclear weapons.
Trump said in September that he would be open to negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, said Trump's unpredictability meant a second presidency was a foreign policy gamble.
He could return to maximum pressure, redouble his efforts and provide meaningful support to the Iranian people and… do everything in his power to bring down the Iranian regime, he said.
Or, Dubowitz added, Trump could consider negotiating with Iran early in his term and reach a deal that would impose fewer controls on Iran's nuclear program. The Republicans, of course, politically, [would] have no choice but to line up to support this deal, Dubowitz said.
China
I would say: if you go to Taiwan… I will tax you 150% to 200%
DONALD Trump, October 2024
Trump called Chinese President Xi Jinping a very good friend during my tenure, while threatening high tariffs as a tool to get Beijing to heed U.S. pressure.
Trump said last month, he convinced China not to invade Taiwan by telling Xi Jinping he would impose tariffs of up to 200 percent, or stop trade altogether.
When asked if he would use military force against a Chinese blockade on Taiwan, Trump replied: I wouldn't have to because he [Xi] respects me and knows that I'm… crazy.
Republican Rep. Mike Waltz said Trump would face pressure from Congress to impose sanctions on China to prevent Beijing from buying Russian oil, a trade line that has brought the powers closer together and helped Moscow pursue its war in Ukraine.
President Trump… said in his own language: “Hey, China, if you keep buying from them, you can't buy from us… So there are a number of things we can do , Waltz said in a radio interview Monday.
