Can Trump help Pakistani Imran Khan? · Global voices

U.S. President Donald J. Trump greets Prime Minister Imran Khan of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Monday, July 22, 2019, in the West Wing Lobby of the White House. (Official White House photo by Joyce N. Boghosian). Image via Flickr from Trump White House Archived. Public domain.

The complex relationship between the United States and Pakistan has long been marked by a mix of cooperation and deep hostility due to contentious diplomatic relations, nuclear policy and regional issues such as the war in Afghanistan. For many Pakistanis, the United States is seen as an external force intervening in their internal affairs, a narrative constructed by decades of political unrest, economic volatility and military operations, particularly during the war on terror led by the United States.

This narrative was solidified when former Prime Minister Imran Khan was impeached two years ago. He quickly blamed the United States for his downfall. Khan was removed from office in 2022 following a vote of no confidence in Pakistan's parliament. He was sentenced to 10 years in prison for corruption in January 2024, just weeks before Pakistan's February general elections. However, the former cricketer turned politician claimed his country's top military generals and Washington conspired to remove him from office. This claim has not been verified, but its supporters widely believed it.

Now, after Donald Trump won a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election, supporters of Imran Khan, the incarcerated former Pakistani prime minister, say Trump will find time to tweet something something highlighting Khan's situation. The two leaders apparently share a strong bond, dating back to former Prime Minister Khan's White House visit in July 2019. The meeting was seen as a diplomatic victory for Khan, raising his international stature and hinting at global warming. relations between the United States and Pakistan. reports.

With those moments in mind, Khan's supporters, including much of the 625,000-strong Pakistani American community, believe Trump may be willing to champion the former prime minister's interests in his second term . When Trump was president, he saw Khan (then prime minister) on several occasions, including at the White House. When the two leaders met again in January 2020, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump described Khan as a very good friend of mine.

The Pakistani-American community in the United States has built strong relationships with the Trump campaign and has pledged to support Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Trump has a non-interventionist, anti-war stance and has said he opposes regime change operations on foreign soil.

The intrigue surrounding Trump's return is compounded by his campaign's promises, including the possibility of advocating for Khan's release from prison. A clip circulating on social media shows him promising to push for Mr Khan's release; however, this is an old video edited by Imran Khan's followers and never actually happened.

As Trump prepares to take office in January 2025, one question remains: Will Trump intervene in Pakistani politics? While Khan's supporters are clearly optimistic, it is critical to consider the broader ramifications of U.S. foreign policy in South Asia, particularly under a leader like Trump, who has demonstrated a transactional approach to international relations. Trump's foreign policy has often prioritized personal relationships and short-term rewards over long-term strategic goals.

Historically, U.S. administrations have used their authority to influence outcomes in Pakistan, often prioritizing geopolitical interests over democratic norms. The influence of the military on Pakistani politics cannot be overstated; the military establishment wields significant power and frequently dictates foreign policy choices. Analysts say that whoever occupies the White House, the United States will likely deal with the Pakistani military rather than individual politicians. This fact presents considerable obstacles for Khan, who has established himself as an outsider to traditional systems of power in Pakistan and the United States.

The Biden administration has resumed military support and investment in Pakistan, emphasizing areas of technology and green energy that Trump may not prioritize given his track record. The idea that Trump will adopt a more lenient stance toward Khan is no guarantee that he will ignore U.S. strategic interests in the region, particularly regarding relations with India and the fight against Chinese domination.

Still, Trump's intervention, even if nominally in Khan's favor, would be risky. Trump's track record indicates that his foreign policy decisions are often influenced by personal ties and financial interests rather than a coherent ideological position, raising concerns about his long-term commitment to a particular outcome in the Pakistan. Furthermore, Trump's potential engagement with Pakistan could exacerbate divisions, particularly if his support is interpreted as taking a stance against the military establishment. Such a posture could strengthen Khan's supporters while exacerbating the country's long-running civil-military power struggle.

It is worth noting that Washington considers Islamabad an ally against Tehran in the unlikely event of a conflict with Iran. A certain consensus emerged on this point during strategic discussions between the United States and Pakistan. Now that Republicans have taken control of the White House, the Senate and probably the US House of Representatives, the new administration will address Pakistan without worrying about Khan or other lawmakers. Any influence from the Trump administration would be driven by U.S. strategic objectives, particularly in South Asia, such as regional security and countering China's influence, rather than simple humanitarian considerations.

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