Politics
Trump's tariff threat paves way for bitter global trade war | Donald Trump

Donald Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on goods imported into the United States has set the stage for a bitter global trade war, trade experts and economists say, with consumers and businesses warned to prepare at high costs.
The president-elect announced Monday evening his intention to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on all their exports to the United States until they reduce migration and the flow of drugs into the country.
As officials from all three countries rushed to respond, Keith Rockwell, former director of the World Trade Organization, predicted that Trump's decision could trigger a trade war. The United States exports goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars to these countries, he said. Anyone expecting them to remain passive and not fight back hasn't been paying attention.
China quickly suggested that both sides would lose if economic tensions escalated. No one will win a trade war or a tariff war, Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, and Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Public Safety, touted the country's balanced and mutually beneficial economic ties with the United States.
Hours after Trump made the announcements on Truth Social, his social media platform, ING economists released a study estimating that his broader campaign proposals on trade included a universal tariff of between 10 and 20% on all goods imported from abroad, and a tariff of 60%. tariffs on all products from China could cost each U.S. consumer up to $2,400 per year.
This potential increase in consumer costs and inflation could have broad economic implications, particularly in an economy where consumer spending accounts for 70% of total activity, said ING's James Knightley.
It's unclear whether Trump, who has described tariffs as the most beautiful word in the dictionary, will follow through on this plan. Tariffs paid by the company that imports foreign products are not popular with voters, even Trump voters. A Harris poll carried out for the Guardian found that 69% of people think they will increase the prices they pay.
And although he threatened to impose universal tariffs during his campaign for the White House, this proposal for a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada and a tariff of 10% on China, in addition to existing duties, is more targeted.
Trump's statements clearly herald the dawn of a new era of U.S. trade protectionism that will draw many of the United States' trading partners into its purview, said Eswar Prasad, former head of the IMF's China division. Such tariffs will have a disruptive effect on U.S. trade as well as international trade, as countries around the world work to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on their own economies and attempt to find solutions. ways to escape it.
On the campaign trail, Trump and his allies argued that such measures would help strengthen the U.S. economy and make America rich again. Many economists have taken a different view, warning that drastic tariffs would raise the price of goods for U.S. consumers and risk prompting other countries to retaliate, thus hitting U.S. companies exporting goods to the world .
But in his Tuesday announcements, Trump did not focus on the economic benefits the tariffs would bring. Instead, he blamed Mexico and Canada for the ridiculous open borders that he said were causing an immigration crisis, and China for the massive amounts of drugs, particularly Fentanyl, arriving in the United States. and pledged to impose tariffs on these countries until they address his concerns.
Trump apparently views tariffs as a widely used tool to combat a variety of harmful external factors that negatively impact the U.S. economy, society and national security, noted Prasad, now a professor in Trade Policy at Cornell University.
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Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who supported Trump, wrote on the aim of respecting its commitments. “America First” political strategy.
Making such announcements on social media is a great way for Trump to effect foreign policy changes before he even takes office, Ackman said.
As Trump crafts his broader trade strategy, Rockwell, a former WTO member, said a universal 10% tariff would be more manageable than a 20% tariff. But if you increase it by 20%, it creates a different dynamic, he said. You're going to see much, much less demand for these products.
There will also, undoubtedly, be retaliation, he added. European officials have drawn up their list, he said. It's Brussels' best-kept secret, but it's established.
Countries will retaliate by imposing tariffs on political points of tension, Rockwell predicted. Under the last Trump administration, the European Union targeted U.S. exports, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Levis jeans and Kentucky bourbon.
Sources 2/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/26/trump-tariff-threat-worldwide-response The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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