Khan will break the deadlock with corpses

As I tried to contact a family member based in Islamabad on Monday, I could sense the frustration in his voice of not being able to speak properly as the call kept disconnecting. Internet connection was sporadic, which was not just my experience but that of millions of people in Pakistan, who have been experiencing state repression on social media and communications services for the past few days.

And that's not all: all highways in Punjab, especially roads leading to the capital, were closed and all private residences, including student hostels, were forcibly evacuated. Students coming to Islamabad from all over the country are caught between not having accommodation and not being able to return home on time.

This could have been justified if it was done to protect the state capital from foreign attack, but it appears that Islamabad is under siege from within. The government is struggling to protect its mandate and keep former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), out of jail.

View full article Khan's Final Call

Khan made a final appeal to his supporters on November 24, asking them to march on Islamabad. He hoped to pressure the military and civilian government not only to release him, but to yield to this political pressure and agree to hold elections as soon as possible. The latter, he hopes, will bring him back to power.

Despite widespread rumors from Islamabad that Khan was offered mid-term elections in exchange for some cooperation, he is exerting relentless pressure.

Supporters of the Khans of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, in particular, continued their march towards the capital. They insist on being allowed to stage a sit-in at the famous D-Chowk, located in close proximity to the parliament, presidency and the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Some journalists I spoke with say Khan's insistence on a sit-in speaks to his frustration, which emanates from realizing he is running out of options, particularly since the 26th amendment, aimed at neutralizing pro-PTI members of the higher judiciary.

Regardless of his agitation, the PTI leader certainly appears to have enough power to force the government to shut down not just a city but almost an entire province. As someone joked to me, it was the government that gave so much power to an imprisoned opposition leader.

Other sources I spoke with suggest that the domestic fiasco is due to the continued aid provided to the opposition leader by army circles. It appears that the decision to extend the tenure of the army chiefs was not very well received. In this context, the PTI rally, or those within who are facilitating it, is not aimed at the government but at Pakistan COAS Asim Munir.

However, much of Khan's strength lies in his perseverance. Instead of giving in to statements that the government is determined to use force, such as that of Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, Khan and his wife continued to urge their support base to march. The ruling couple knows that it would be impossible for the state machinery to evict PTI supporters from D-Chowk without resorting to force, which would turn the sit-in into international news.

Also read: Bushra Bibi is Nur Jahan for Imran Khan's supporters. They want to know Jemimas' next move

A frustrated public

At this point, Khan probably wants physical sacrifices from his followers. He believes that a few corpses are the only recipe for a camp to collapse. He expects the government to fall due to a mishap. After all, shooting at ethnic minorities like the Baloch or Pashtuns may not yield the desired results, but when residents of Islamabad or Lahore are gunned down, it is a different matter altogether.

Khan also knows he can count on frustration among the general public, especially after the heavily rigged elections in 2024. Pakistan's new generation is exhausted by the traditional power structure and persistent poor governance. They believe that the PTI could be an answer to their problems. While this perception is highly questionable, the fact remains that their continued refusal to support Khan is a testament to the resilience of the Pakistani people, whether at home or abroad.

For those willing to campaign for Khan's release and hope for his return, it is not just about restoring a man to a position of power, but also about saving their country from a downfall. Exhaustion with dynastic politics and traditional political cliques is real. It is no longer just the urban middle class, but also the lower middle class and the lower class, who seemed ready to vote for Khan in the 2024 elections.

This is not to say that no one fears Khan's return to power. The PTI leader can become vicious and venomous against those who do not support his views. It is also a fact that he popularized offensive language in politics. I also suffered from the fact that the PTI attacked me in foul and abusive language. Despite all these concerns, it is difficult to deny the underlying causes of such behavior.

Also read: Shia killings in Pakistan mark the collapse of its nation. The Islamic State only knows war

A vulnerable Pakistan

PTI supporters are not just motivated by their passion for Imran Khan, but also by the anxiety of seeing Pakistan sink and slip out of their grip. It is, however, regrettable that the desire to see Pakistan survive results in verbal and sometimes physical violence.

Some say pro-Palestinian protests in London have drawn crowds far larger than those supporting the PTI. But this comparison is like comparing apples to oranges. It ignores the fact that the PTI protests are far more organic than the orchestrated, often paid or forced, pro-Kashmir rallies organized by Pakistan's embassies and high commissions abroad. Participants in the recent PTI protests are highly motivated and are coming together despite the difficulties encountered during the PTI leadership's call for action.

At present, the Pakistani establishment is still trying to ensure that there is no congregation at D-Chowk so that the government can continue its business without interruption. Moreover, the Belarusian president is visiting Pakistan, which the government does not want to be spoiled by the PTI rally in Islamabad.

The use of force will only weaken the ruling establishment. This is a no-win situation for both parties. Imran Khan understands that softening his stance will affect popular support, while the state believes that giving the PTI leader some space will put him in a situation where he will be forced to concede more. It's a total moment of rest with a box of popcorn for the whole world watching the end of the game. There is no doubt that Pakistan is at its lowest and most vulnerable nationally.

Ayesha Siddiqa is a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of War Studies at Kings College London. She is the author of “Military Inc.” She tweets @iamthedrifter. Opinions are personal.

(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)

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