Trump could cancel NASA's powerful SLS moon rocket – here's what it would mean for Elon Musk and the future of space travel

Since Donald Trump's recent election victory, rumors and speculation have swirled that NASA's giant moon rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), may be under threat. The rocket is one of the key elements needed for the US space agency's Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the Moon for the first time since 1972.

For the first moon landing mission, called Artemis III, the SLS will launch four astronauts on NASA's Orion crew capsule. Orion will then travel to the moon. Once in lunar orbit, Orion will dock with Elon Musk's Starship vehicle (which was launched separately). Two astronauts will float in Starship, which will detach from Orion and descend to the lunar surface.

After walking on the Moon, the two astronauts return to lunar orbit aboard Starship, which docks with Orion. The two moonwalkers rejoin their teammates and return home to Orion, leaving Starship in orbit around the moon.

American space journalist Eric Berger recently posted on NASA's Space Launch System be canceled.”

Related: NASA begins stacking SLS rocket for Artemis 2 lunar mission (photos)

No official announcement has been made. However, such a move could be in line with earlier speculation that the Trump administration could gut NASA, forcing it to outsource much of its work to private companies.

But could another rocket easily replace the SLS? This question is at the heart of what America wants to achieve in the context of the emerging space race of the 21st century. China has committed to sending its astronauts to the lunar surface by 2030. Unlike the United States, China is generally conservative in its estimates, so we can assume that a delay in the timeline is unlikely. Meanwhile, several elements of Artemis delay the schedule.

Latest space news, latest updates on rocket launches, skywatching events and much more!

Could Elon Musk convince President Trump to fund a crewed mission to Mars? (Image credit: NASA)

One of those delayed items is Musk's spacecraft, which serves as the lander on Artemis III. It still has to demonstrate key milestones, including in-space refueling and uncrewed moon landing. Some in the space community believe that if China were to be the first to go to the Moon this century, it would be a major blow to America's ambitions in space.

Musk has been named in the new administration as one of two key cost-cutters, aiming to cut up to US$2 trillion (£1.57 trillion) from the federal budget. Some observers have been alarmed by Elon Musk's closeness to Trump and the president-elect's comments about shifting attention to a crewed mission to Mars.

These comments appear to reflect the views of Musk, who has focused much of his energy on his ambitions to populate the Red Planet, not the Moon. The billionaire has said he wants to send humans on a journey to Mars using his Starship vehicle by 2028 – a timetable some consider unrealistic.

The SLS performed very well during the Artemis I mission in 2022. (Image credit: Josh Dinner)

It was actually the first Trump administration that created the Artemis program in 2017. After initial missions to the lunar surface, the program aims to establish a permanent base where astronauts can learn to live and work on the Moon, leading cutting-edge research. .

However, the schedule slipped. American astronauts were scheduled to land on the Moon this year. NASA now says that the first landing, during the Artemis III mission, will not take place until fall 2026.

Delays were introduced by spacesuit redesigns, problems with Orion's heat shield and life support systems and, as mentioned, with Starship. An upgraded mobile launch tower for the SLS has also been plagued by cost overruns and schedule delays.

Could NASA's Orion crew capsule be launched on another rocket? (Image credit: NASA)

Notably, one element that is not contributing to the delays is the SLS, which performed very well during the Artemis I mission in 2022. Several billion dollars have already been invested in the design and construction of the SLS and associated infrastructure at the Kennedy NASA Space Center in 2022. Florida.

NASA says the SLS is “the only rocket capable of sending Orion, astronauts and cargo directly to the Moon in a single launch.” But its cost has been criticized: each SLS launch is estimated to cost more than $2 billion (£1.6 billion).

News of delays and technical issues with Artemis coincided with overwhelmingly positive PR for Musk's SpaceX – particularly around its Starship test flights. This includes last month's feat, where the vehicle's massive booster stage was caught in a pair of robotic arms as it fell from space towards the company's launch pad in Texas – stunning space enthusiasts from all over the world. Unlike many launch vehicles, Starship is designed to be completely reusable. Its cost effectiveness could greatly benefit future crewed missions.

Mechazilla grabbed the Super Heavy booster! pic.twitter.com/6R5YatSVJXOctober 13, 2024

If the SLS were to be canceled, could Musk's spacecraft replace it? In this scenario, the SpaceX vehicle could likely serve as both a launch vehicle to send astronauts en route to lunar orbit and a lander to take them to the surface. This is technically feasible, but would be far from a simple, like-for-like replacement. The SLS is already an operational rocket, while Starship is still in the testing phase and still has key milestones to complete before astronauts can board it.

Another SpaceX rocket that has already been touted as an Orion launch candidate is the Falcon Heavy. However, engineers would have to modify both the rocket and the assembly and launch procedures. This would cause many uncertainties, and with it the risk of further significant delays in Artemis' schedule. All of this suggests that there isn't much time left to make major changes to NASA's lunar program if the United States wants to get ahead in this 21st century space race.

NASA has already examined whether Orion could be launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket. (Image credit: Space.com / Josh Dinner)

Rocket launches require specific designs to meet mission requirements, as well as extensive planning for transporting astronauts, spacecraft and payloads. Artemis' goals are not only to land astronauts on the Moon, but also to be able to land in various regions of the lunar surface, including the relatively unexplored South Pole.

The planning and development required is extremely complex and ambitious. It remains to be seen whether SpaceX, or any other commercial launch company, is ready to take on such a significant undertaking and commitment.

With tens of billions of dollars already invested in the SLS, it does not appear economically viable to completely scrap the rocket. As indicated by NASA's willingness to pursue an innovative approach and work with commercial companies on future Artemis missions, there may be other ways for commercial space players to get involved.

It is understandable that the new Trump administration is raising questions and challenging cost models in NASA programs. But they would be advised to carefully consider the trade-offs before making decisions with such far-reaching consequences.

It may be a question of whether the priority is to win the new space race. Whatever goals the new administration chooses to prioritize or target, it may need to carefully justify that decision to other lawmakers and the American public.

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