Politics
China in 2025 | Merics
With Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025, China will use expected transatlantic tensions to woo Europe while building a coalition of like-minded partners to resist pressure from the United States. Europe cannot protect itself between the two camps, otherwise it risks derailing its risk reduction agenda and long-term policy towards China.
Chinese leaders are preparing for greater geopolitical and economic competition with Washington. He expects Trump to follow through on his threats of high tariffs on Chinese imports and tighter restrictions on technology trade. But China's response will depend on its assessment of Trump's true intentions. If he thinks Washington wants to bring China to the negotiating table, his response could be more moderate. But there is a good chance that Beijing will conclude that the United States is seeking to contain China's development. The response will then be much harsher.
For Europe, this will mean a more globally assertive China, building its own coalition of countries to resist US pressure. Russia will be its key partner in this regard, but Beijing will probably also reach out to Europe. Even if any offer to improve relations has little substance, Beijing will try to take advantage of the transatlantic tensions stoked by Trump. By positioning itself as a more reliable partner and champion of free trade, China will reach out to member states and businesses most affected by (or resistant to) pressure from Washington, in the hope that they will ignore the position of Beijing towards Ukraine.
For others in Europe, Beijing will continue to use Chinese investment, market access and the threat of economic retaliation to shape their behavior and upend Europe's de-risking agenda.
The situation in the Indo-Pacific region could be better. Beijing will be wary of Trump's unpredictability, at least initially. And the ongoing anti-corruption purge against the leadership of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which could have brought down Defense Minister Dong Jun, will not inspire much confidence among the party's top leaders in the ability of the army to prevail in a conflict. Current pressure tactics against Taiwan, the Philippines and other regional powers will remain, but Beijing will not have much appetite for conflict in the region.
MERICS analysis: China will try to have it both ways next year, stepping up support for Russia while reaching out to Europe to get relations back on track, said Helene LegardaSenior Analyst at MERICS. If EU member states try to stay on the good side of the United States and China, the EU's China policy and risk reduction strategy could be crippled. Without a clear strategy and a clear set of objectives, Europe could turn into an arena of competition between the United States and China.
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