Did Xi Jinping delay China's plans to invade Taiwan? First message

Did Xi Jinping delay China's plans to invade Taiwan?

A new report casts further doubt on the Chinese president's plan to invade Taiwan.

Xi has previously said reunification with Taiwan is inevitable and vowed to achieve it at all costs.

Taiwan separated from the mainland in 1949 during a civil war when the defeated Nationalist government fled to the island.

China claims Taiwan as its own territory, which can be annexed by force if necessary.

But what does the report say? And what do the experts think?

Let's take a closer look

The United States is worried about Taiwan

U.S. officials have been concerned about China's invasion of Taiwan for years.

U.S. officials say Xi has ordered his military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027 and that Washington is wasting no time preparing for that eventuality.

In November, the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, announced that his team had successfully defended Taiwan in a series of classified war games that included secret unmanned systems.

The Biden administration also last week approved a $2 billion weapons program for the island itself, including air defense missiles.

I believe Taiwan can be defended from air, land and sea, including underwater, Paparo said. I have a number of plans that have been tested in classified environments and proven successful… There has been no change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

Aquilino, the former commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said in April Nikkei Asia that Beijing seeks to prepare to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027

Aquilino highlighted Xi's remarks asking “his military to be ready if tasked to execute in 2027.”

Xi has repeatedly expressed his desire to do so.

Xi, speaking on the eve of Communist China's 75th anniversary in October at a state banquet, once again promised complete reunification of the motherland.

It is an irreversible trend, a cause of justice and a common aspiration of the people. No one can stop the march of history, Xi was quoted as saying by China.

Taiwan is China's sacred territory. Blood is thicker than water and people on both sides of the strait are linked by blood, Xi said.

He added that there must be spiritual harmony between compatriots on both sides and China must resolutely oppose Taiwan's pro-independence separatist activities.

Xi, in his New Year's speech, had declared that China's “reunification” with Taiwan was inevitable.

“The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,” Xi said, although the official English translation of his remarks published by the Xinhua news agency uses a simpler phrase: “China will surely be reunified.”

“Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common goal and share the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” he added. The official English translation wrote “all Chinese” rather than “compatriots”.

Last year, Xi simply declared that people on both sides of the strait were “members of one family” and that he hoped people on both sides would work together to “jointly promote lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation.

Xi does not yet have confidence

However, a piece in The economist quoted U.S. officials as saying that Xi's recent actions lead them to believe that China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

They cited Xi's latest purge of China's top military leadership as evidence that he does not yet have confidence in his ability to take Taiwan quickly and at an acceptable cost.

Xi has led a broad campaign against deep-rooted official corruption since coming to power more than a decade ago. Supporters say the policy promotes clean governance, while critics say it helps Xi purge his political rivals.

The crackdown comes as China has increased its military pressure on Taiwan and repeatedly clashed with its neighbors over disputed territory in the South China Sea.

Admiral Miao Hua in November became the latest senior official to fall prey to Xi's sweep of the military and senior officials.

Miao, considered an ally of Xi, is a member of China's highest military body the Central Military Commission (CMC).

Beijing removed Miao from his post pending an investigation into serious violations of discipline, a common euphemism for corruption.

Miao is not alone.

His suspension comes after a British newspaper Financial Times reported that Defense Minister Dong Jun, considered a protégé of Miao, is under investigation.n for corruption.

China rejected the report, calling it a complete fabrication.

These rumor mongers have bad intentions. China expresses deep dissatisfaction with such smears, Defense Ministry said CNN.

Since 2023, nearly two dozen military officials, including Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, both former defense ministers, have been purged in a broad crackdown.

Wei and Li have been expelled from the ruling Communist Party and are being investigated for corruption, according to state media.

Al Jazeera cited a statement by the Communist Party at the time that they had betrayed the trust of the party and the Central Military Commission, seriously polluted the military's political environment, and caused serious damage to the image of its senior leaders .

According to CNNLi was dismissed just months into his tenure as defense minister, with no reason given.

Analysts have linked the purge to a broader investigation into the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, which oversees China's nuclear and conventional missiles and would likely constitute Beijing's first line of attack in case of major conflict.

Both former defense ministers had links to the force. Wei previously headed the unit and Li Shangfu headed a department that developed weapons, including missiles.

The unit's head, Li Yuchao, and chief of staff Sun Jinming were expelled from the party and investigated for corruption in July.

Three senior officials were also dismissed from public missile defense organizations in December 2023.

According to Al Jazeeraat least nine People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals and several defense industry executives have been excluded from the national legislature.

But the removal of Miao and Dong, if confirmed, could suggest that the corruption purge is expanding.

This is certainly a blow, as one would imagine they would be very careful about having someone very clean in this role, Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, told the agency AFP press release.

Corruption investigations very often target the military due to long-standing historical ties between business and the PLA, he said.

Miao had no clear connection to the Rocket Force, rising through the ranks in the army and then being promoted to admiral in the navy in 2015.

Likewise, the Minister of Defense appointed in December spent his career in the navy and eventually became its commander.

But American officials are not convinced of these denials.

Andrew Erickson of the US Naval War College said The economist that corruption is not a bug, it is an enduring feature of a system in which the Communist Party is inherently above the law.

What do the experts say?

Some say Taiwan is currently safe.

The period of greatest danger has likely been pushed back by several years as Xi Jinping tackles problems with his military's loyalty and corruption, said Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund, a think tank in Washington.

But others say it’s not a given.

David Finkelstein, who studies the Chinese military at the Center for Naval Analyzes, told Defense News that China would not renounce the use of force around Taiwan.

The military option therefore hangs over the Taiwan Strait like a sword of Damocles, he added.

President Xi instructed the PLA [Peoples Liberation Army]Chinese military leaders will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. But that doesn't mean it has decided to invade in 2027 or any other year, CIA Director Bill Burns said in an interview televised in February 2023.

But will Xi give the green light? Or delay the invasion?

Only time will tell.

With the contribution of agencies