Russia, Iran and Turkey hold weekend talks on Syria war

Turkey, Russia and Iran are set to meet this weekend in Qatar to discuss their response to the rebels' shock advance that has radically changed the front lines in Syria's 13-year-old civil conflict.

The meeting will take place on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, an annual event that attracts senior officials, academics and business leaders from more than 150 countries to discuss common concerns.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan “will meet Russian and Iranian ministers (…) for a meeting within the framework of the Astana process” on the sidelines of the forum, a source from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the Agency France-Presse.

Russia and Iran, which support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, launched the Astana process in 2017 alongside Turkey, which supports some rebel factions in the Kazakh capital, Astana. Their goal was to find a political solution to the civil war.

Russia and Turkey successfully negotiated a ceasefire in 2020 that largely ended the fighting, leaving Assad in control of all major cities and about 70% of Syrian territory.

But in a stunning offensive over the past week, Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, and continued to capture Hama, moving closer to Syria's third largest city, Homs.

Hama has remained in government hands since the outbreak of civil war in 2011.

According to Kremlin statements reported by Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke this week with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, emphasizing the need to end aggression against the Syrian state.

Erdogan, according to reports, expressed Turkey's support for Syria's territorial integrity, but stressed the Assad government's obligation to “engage in political solutions to the crisis.”

Turkey, which does not want an independent Kurdish entity in northeastern Syria, has long supported the Syrian National Army, a coalition of armed opposition groups at odds with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a military alliance led by the Kurds and supported by the United States. is a major partner of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State terrorist group, also known as ISIS.

A few days after the start of the HTS offensive, clashes broke out between rival militias.

Russia, which turned the tide of the war in Assad's favor years ago by providing air power, is now distracted by its attack on Ukraine, while Iran, another key Assad backer , is weakened by Israel's war against its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza. .

While some former U.S. officials with experience in the region say advances by the HTS rebels could force Assad and his supporters to compromise, others are not so sure.

“I don't think Moscow is ready to accept the end of Bashar al-Assad's government,” said former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford. “I think Iran also wants to see Assad survive, even though Iran's position is particularly difficult.

James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Turkey and former special representative for engagement in Syria, said the fall of Aleppo was a blow to Assad and that Iranian and Russian support may no longer be enough to retake it.

Retired Gen. Joseph Votel, head of US Central Command from 2016 to 2019, stressed that neither Russia nor Iran wanted to risk compromising their strategic positions in the region.

“Syria offers Russia a foothold in the Middle East and access to warm water ports,” Votel told VOA, referring to the Russian naval port of Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast, as well as as at the Hmeimim air base, near Latakia.

“For Iran, it is crucial to maintain what is called the Shiite Crescent,” he added, describing a predominantly Shiite Muslim area that stretches from Tehran to Beirut through Iraq and Syria. “Losing that access and control would be very significant for them.

Turkey, for its part, is concerned about any developments that could strengthen Kurdish forces in Syria, which it sees as associated with the PKK, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization that has staged attacks in Turkey to support the population. Kurdish people of this country.

Days after the HTS offensive began, clashes broke out between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and the US-backed SDF.

When it comes to the Kurds, [Turkey] has some concerns about their own safety, which we certainly recognized and tried to work with them to mitigate the risks they believe pose against them, Votel said.

Ankara, which hosts 3 million Syrian war refugees, is also seeking conditions that would make it easier for some of those people to return to Syria.

If there is a ceasefire soon and we do not have massive Russian bombings, the liberation of Aleppo will be an opportunity for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees to leave Turkey and return home, Ford said.

American position

US-backed SDF fighters began a new round of fighting against Syrian government forces in the northeast on Tuesday, opening a new front in the battle against Assad's army.

Pentagon officials said Tuesday that the U.S. military carried out a self-defense strike against weapons systems in eastern Syria, calling it unrelated to rebel advances in the country.

Nearly 900 American troops are present in Syria to support the SDF in their fight against Islamic State militants.

White House national security spokesman Sean Savett said last weekend that the latest unrest in Syria was the result of Assad's refusal to engage in a political process and his reliance on towards Russia and Iran.

According to Ford, control of Aleppo is not particularly important to US interests as long as it does not trigger a new wave of refugees.

The Turks, of course, don’t want that,” he said. “And this could even lead to an influx of refugees into Lebanon, especially if the ceasefire is respected. So it seems that the sooner there is a ceasefire, the better.

Another major concern for Washington is the resurgence of an Islamic state that could exploit the chaos.

At a NATO meeting on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it remains vital that the Islamic State jihadist caliphate is not resurrected.

Votel also expressed concern about this possibility.

One of the things we're seeing is that ISIS has retreated into the central part of Syria,” he told VOA. “It's an area under government control Syrian. Many of the forces he had originally assigned to this area have now been withdrawn. This allows ISIS to regroup, reorganize and prepare to rise again.

This story has its origins in Turkish VOA Service.