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Turkey faces demonstrations, a flight of investors after the arrest of the opposition chief

Turkey faces demonstrations, a flight of investors after the arrest of the opposition chief

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Turkish deputies, mayors, party members, members of different political parties, representatives of non -governmental organizations and citizens protest against the mandate of detention of the mayor of the Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Ekrem, the mayor of Beylikduzu (Mayor de Sisli, Mayor Resul Emrah, Mayor Resul Emrah, At Turry on March 19, 2025.

Evrim Aydin | Anatolia | Getty Images

The besieged economy of Turkey is expected to bear more turbulence and theft of investors while demonstrations broke out against a multitude of very controversial arrests carried out by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The demonstrations are in response to the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, one of the main opponents of Erdogan, just a few days before he was appointed candidate of his party to the presidency.

The Turkish markets have flowed the most in the world on Wednesday after the news of the detention of Imamoglu broke out, the LIR reaching a record hollow against the dollar. This led the Central Bank of Turkey to sell a record amount of currencies of nearly $ 10 billion, according to banking calculations Quoted by Reuters To support the besieged currency, which is down 15% over the dollar in the last year and down 83% in the past five years.

Imamoglu, who won the most populated city mayor in Turkey in April 2024, was arrested for accusations such as terrorism and organized crime, whom he and his supporters reject. Prosecutors also published mandates for 100 other people, including journalists, businessmen and members of the Republican Popular Party (CHP) of Imamoglu, which is the main Turkish opposition group. CHP leaders call for arrest a “coup d'etat”.

The office of the Governor of Istanbul imposed prohibitions on protests as well as metro and road closures, while access to social media and on the internet in the country remains severely limited. In response, the demonstrators gathered in the city's barricades and university campuses to express their anger.

Topshot – The waves of imamoglu of the newly re -elected mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, as supporters of the Party of the Republican Day (CHP), celebrate outside the main building of the municipality after the municipal elections through Turkey on March 31, 2024. Tayyip Erdogan and his power party.

Yasin Akdguuldü | AFP | Good tastes

CNBC contacted the Türkiye Interior Ministry to comment. Government representatives deny that arrests are politically motivated and insist that the courts operate independently.

In a traditional article by Google on the social media platform X Thursday, the Turkish Minister of the Interior, Ali Yerlikaya, said that the authorities had detained 37 people for publications on social networks which she considered “provocative” and had fallen under the classification of “the incentive to commit a crime”, according to a translation of Google of the post.

The 53 -year -old popular mayor, who won his post by a landslide in the spring of 2024 local elections, was considered the most serious rival of Erdogan for the Turkish presidency. The CHP had to hold a primary election on March 23, during which Imamoglu was to emerge largely as a candidate for the group's presidential election.

Critics of arrests say that it is the clearest violation of democracy to date by the government of Erdogan.

“Turkey is already in decline, but it is a free political fall,” said Arda Tunca, independent economist and consultant based in Istanbul, told CNBC. “Today is history and a new dimension in the escape of Turkey from democracy.”

Risk for markets and investment flows

Concerns about stability and economic security in Turkey could affect financial entries at a time when investors' confidence in the country is already trembling and after the country's monetary decision -makers have spent almost two years working to transform the inflation situation in Turkey, warns economists.

“The concerns of the primacy of law will persist and this will probably damage foreign direct investment flows in the longer term which are already small unless the AKP administration is able to produce a convincing affair against Imamoglu,” Timothy ASH wrote on Wednesday, the strategist of emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan delivers a national statement to the World Summit in Climate Action at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 1, 2023.

Thaier al-Sudani | Reuters

Inflation in Türkiye remains high more recently by reaching 39.05% in February and is a key snack on which the CHP planned to take place in its campaign against Erdogan. The continuous sale of LIRA investors could trigger further inflation, forcing the Turkish Central Bank to increase interest rates, which are currently 42.5% attractive.

“Development will reverse investors' confidence and LIRA, and this will retreat inflation,” CNBC George Dyson, principal analyst and Turkey specialist at Control Risks told CNBC. However, Dyson and other analysts do not provide for the central bank to abandon economic orthodoxy and reduction rates. On the contrary, there can be new rate increases, if Lira's weakness is worsening, because the laser emphasis of the bank has been to fight against inflation.

Turkey “feels in geopolitically safe”

The next Turkey's presidential election is expected to take place in 2028, but the parliament should request an early vote, while timing would promote Imamoglu which, according to recent opinion polls, would easily beat Erdogan.

“The surveys presented to Erdogan probably showed that, even with its advantages of holder and its total control of institutions and the media, Imamoglu still beaten it by large margins during a presidential vote,” wrote Soner Cagaptay, Turkish historian and main member of the Washington Institute, in a position on the Platform of Social Media X.

“This is why Erdogan opted for the nuclear option [against] Imamoglu. “”

However, recent geopolitical developments have strengthened Erdogan's hand when it comes to dealing with international consequences. The return of American president Donald Trump to the White House has embarked on leaders in other countries to display democratic standards, according to some political analysts.

“A plausible explanation for the reason they now do so far from the elections is that the Turkish government feels in geopolitical security,” said Dyson. “The United States notes that this does not care about this kind of actions and that the EU needs Turkey on Ukraine and Syria, and therefore the Turkish government is taking advantage of the moment when they expect a minimum international backlash.”

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/turkey-faces-protests-investor-flight-after-opposition-leaders-arrest.html

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