Israel fears Trump could make ‘bad deal’ with Iran, leaving war goals unmet

Israel fears that US President Donald Trump will strike a deal with Iran before addressing some of the key issues that pushed the two countries to start war, several Israeli sources told CNN.

A deal that leaves Tehran’s nuclear program partially intact while sidestepping issues such as ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies would lead Israel to view the war as incomplete, the sources said.

“The main concern is that Trump will tire of the negotiations and make a deal – any deal – with last-minute concessions,” an Israeli source said. While U.S. officials reassured Israel that the issue of Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium would be addressed, the source said the apparent exclusion of ballistic missiles and Tehran’s proxy network from the negotiations “is a big deal.”

Iran fired more than 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel and the Gulf Arab states during the war, as well as drone barrages.

A partial deal that leaves out some of Iran’s key capabilities while easing economic pressure on the country could also stabilize the regime and provide it with an influx of cash, the officials said. These concerns highlight a divide between Trump, who appears reluctant to resume the war, and Netanyahu, who fears it will end without having achieved all of its initial goals.

A White House spokeswoman said Iran “knows very well that the current reality is not sustainable,” insisting that Trump “holds all the cards” in the negotiations.

“Their ballistic missiles are destroyed, their production facilities are dismantled, their navy is sunk and their proxies are weakened,” Olivia Wales said in a statement to CNN. “Today they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million a day thanks to the US military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports. »

A deal between the United States and Iran to end the war is far from certain, significant differences remain between the two sides’ positions on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, and Israel is bracing for the possibility of renewed fighting. But the Trump administration continues to push for a diplomatic path, apparently unwilling to reignite a conflict that has sent U.S. gas prices soaring.

Early in the war, Trump suggested that the United States wanted to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile program, end its support for regional proxies, and close its nuclear facilities so that it could never develop a bomb. But ten weeks later, negotiations focused on uranium – particularly its enrichment to weapons-grade levels – and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The narrowing of goals is visible in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s own public statements. In a February speech in Jerusalem, before the war in Iran, he set five conditions for an acceptable deal: the withdrawal of all enriched uranium, the dismantling of enrichment capabilities, the fight against ballistic missiles, the dismantling of Iran’s regional proxy network, and rigorous nuclear inspections.

Last week, in a video speech to a meeting of Israel’s security cabinet, he narrowed that list down to just one. “The most important objective is the removal of enriched materials from Iran – all of the enriched materials – and the dismantling of Iran’s enrichment capabilities,” he said, without any mention of ballistic missiles or support for proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza.

A source close to the discussions said Israel understands that missiles and proxies “are probably off the table” because they do not appear to be included in early diplomatic plans, and that is why Netanyahu is prioritizing uranium as the most immediate threat.

The prime minister is relying on his direct communications with Trump, one of the Israeli sources said, because he does not fully trust Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who are leading the negotiations with Iran. Netanyahu has implemented backdoor diplomacy with Iran using intelligence gathered from Pakistan, Qatar and Iran.

“There is a real fear that Trump will reach a bad deal. Israel is trying to influence him as much as it can,” another Israeli official told CNN. But Netanyahu is wary of how much pressure to apply, fearing being seen as Trump returning to war.

The White House told CNN that Witkoff and Kushner had “complete confidence” in Trump, highlighting what it described as a “record of success,” including ending the war in Gaza.

Israeli officials fear that a lifting of economic pressure – even partial – could stabilize the Iranian regime in a moment of weakness. Netanyahu’s former national security adviser, Meir Ben Shabbat, wrote this weekend in Israeli newspaper Makor Rishon that any deal must avoid allowing the regime to reestablish itself, instead pointing to Trump’s recent remark that “maybe we would be better off with no deal at all” as a preferable outcome to a deal that fails to meet Israel’s goals.

Israel’s security establishment is particularly concerned about an interim deal that would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease economic pressure on Iran without completely touching on the nuclear issue.

Iran has insisted that a preliminary deal would only cover sanctions relief and the strait, with the nuclear issue relegated to later stages.

A senior Israeli official told CNN that Israel remains on alert in case negotiations break down. “We have our finger on the pulse. We will be happy if there is no deal, we will be happy if the siege of Hormuz continues, and we will be happy if Iran gets a few more strikes in,” he said, acknowledging that the decision ultimately lies with Trump. Escalation, he noted, is a realistic scenario “if the Iranians continue to play games and drag out the negotiations.”

Another source close to the discussions said the United States and Israel continued to coordinate on possible military plans in Iran, including strikes on energy facilities and infrastructure as well as targeted assassinations of Iranian leaders, should talks fail.

The chairman of the Israeli parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, Boaz Bismuth, reflected the prevailing view in a tweet following a classified briefing with senior military officials.

“It’s either negotiations or a boom,” he said on Sunday.

An Israeli source told CNN that the idea of ​​a sunset clause was raised during the negotiations – a provision that would allow certain restrictions to expire after a certain number of years. This expiration would allow Iran to resume some nuclear activities, as in the case of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama. Netanyahu and Trump have repeatedly criticized the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Israel is wary that the current negotiating framework could contain similar elements.

The source said Israel was pushing to insert two clauses that could distinguish it from the JCPOA: a complete ban on enrichment during the expiration period, and the dismantling of Iran’s Fordow underground facility and the Pickaxe Mountain site, both of which are highly fortified underground sites where Iran is believed to be developing its nuclear capabilities.

A senior Israeli military official told reporters last month that if the war ends without Iran’s enriched uranium being extracted, it will be considered a failure.

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