High stakes for the United States, China and the world

“Good things take time,” as the old saying goes. After postponing his trip in March – having recently launched war with Iran – US President Donald Trump is expected to visit Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of the week.

The meeting comes as the world faces a lingering energy crisis due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and peace negotiations between Tehran and Washington appear to be at an impasse. Meanwhile, deep-rooted trade disputes between China and the United States still lurk behind the scenes.

In this context, both countries have an interest in ensuring that the meeting between the two leaders is a success. Neither Trump nor Xi are ready to lose face. Both want to remain “the strong man”.

“Trump desperately needs good news on the foreign policy front,” said Chu Yin, a political scientist at Beijing-based think tank Pangoal and a former professor at Beijing International Relations University.

“Trump’s poll numbers are in the gutter heading into the November midterm elections. Apparently his plan to quickly bring China’s ally Iran to its knees with ‘pre-emptive’ military strikes, celebrate his triumph in Beijing and use it as a bargaining chip has not worked,” Chu told DW.

Chu added that Trump must now pin his hopes on at least partially reaching a deal in the trade war he himself launched last year with a scattered tariff regime. Ahead of the meeting, negotiators from the two countries will seek to make progress on concrete agreements during talks in Seoul, South Korea.

Trump to bring up Jimmy Lai in talks with Xi

At least Trump can count on China for its pomp and accolades. After all, Beijing does not want to embarrass its own president – ​​who has been firmly in power for 13 years – by not respecting the ceremony.

Trump also told reporters he would speak to Xi about the release of Hong Kong media mogul and pro-democracy figure Jimmy Lai, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison under a draconian national security law imposed by Beijing.

“Jimmy Lai, he caused a lot of trouble in China. He tried to do the right thing. He didn’t succeed, he went to prison, and people would like him to be released, and I’d like to see that too,” Trump said Monday.

Will Trump maintain the status quo for Taiwan?

For Beijing, the question of Taiwan’s legal status constitutes a red line that must not be crossed in diplomatic relations with the United States.

Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), founded by Mao Zedong in 1949. However, the democratically governed island officially operates under the constitution of the Republic of China (ROC), founded in 1912.

According to Beijing’s legal interpretation, “Taiwan” should not be used to refer to an independent country. The government insists that there is only one China and that Taiwan is one of them, with Beijing’s rulers being China’s only legitimate government. Beijing calls this concept the “one China principle,” which serves as the basis for all diplomatic relations with the PRC.

In the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972, which, along with two other documents, is considered the basis for the resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and the PRC, the United States merely “recognized” the one-China principle.

However, the Taiwan Relations Act, a U.S. federal law enacted in 1979, authorizes the U.S. government to “provide Taiwan with weapons of a defensive nature” and to “maintain the ability of the United States to resist any use of force or other forms of coercion that would endanger the security, or the social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.”

Beijing recognizes that US President Trump has considerable room for maneuver within this legal framework. Xi is therefore expected to try to persuade Trump to make a pro-Beijing statement on Taiwan, which could include explicit opposition to Taiwan’s “independence.” A statement to this effect from an American president would have enormous diplomatic implications. Until last year, Washington’s official formulation was that the United States “does not support Taiwan’s independence.”

Trump administration moves slowly on arms deals with Taiwan

Xi could also use his promises of economic deals to pressure Trump to supply weapons to Taiwan.

In December, Trump approved the largest-ever sale of weapons systems to Taiwan, worth $11.2 billion (€9.5 billion). Beijing bristled at this agreement. It should be noted, however, that weapons delivery has not progressed and another $14 billion package is still awaiting Trump’s approval.

On May 8, after much political wrangling from Taiwan’s opposition party, the Taiwanese parliament passed a law authorizing the purchase of $25 billion in military equipment, much lower than the $40 billion put forward last year by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.

The Trump administration has pressured Taiwan to increase its defense spending.

On Monday, when asked about U.S. support for Taiwan’s defense, Trump told reporters: “I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi.”

“President Xi wishes we didn’t do it, and I will discuss it. It’s one of many things I will talk about,” he said. Trump added that he doubted a conflict between China and Taiwan could flare up under his leadership.

“I don’t think it’s going to happen,” he said. “I think everything will be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi. He knows I don’t want this to happen.”

Can China help Trump with Iran?

As Trump faces a standoff with Iran, Beijing may have some leverage to lure Trump away from Taiwan by helping to mediate the conflict, said Peter Qiu, president and founder of the Center for Globalization think tank in Hong Kong.

“The United States needs China’s support in the war against Iran,” he told DW.

But Washington is not the only country seeking diplomatic support from Beijing: Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited China.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed concern that the war in Iran is undermining regional and world peace. At the same time, he said China supports Iran’s peaceful use of nuclear energy for civilian purposes as it considers it “the right of every sovereign state.”

Wang also expressed hope that “all parties involved in the Iranian conflict will respond positively to the international community’s expectations by ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The threat of Iranian strikes has kept the strait closed since early March, cutting off the world from about 20% of global oil supplies. The United States responded with its own blockade against Iran-aligned shipping.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it was in China’s interests “as an export-oriented economy” for Iran to no longer block the strait.

“I hope the Chinese convey that message to Iran,” Rubio said last week at the White House.

However, Iran continues to ship oil to China. On Monday, the US government announced sanctions against individuals and companies based in Hong Kong, Oman and the United Arab Emirates for helping to ship Iranian oil to China.

A pause in the trade war?

A year ago, as part of his global tariff campaign, Trump imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese goods, denouncing the trade deficit between the world’s two largest economies. China responded by threatening to cut off its supply of essential rare earth minerals. Trump backed off some of the more extreme tariff threats, like a 145% tariff that he had threatened at one point.

However, the situation remains uncertain and negotiators from the two countries have not yet been able to announce a meaningful agreement.

Trump’s message to Chinese leaders is clear: the world should not just buy Chinese products. China should also buy American products to offset its trade surplus.

“China is willing to buy American products,” said analyst Qiu. “But China also wants to get something in return, such as lifting the export ban on certain American semiconductor products intended for artificial intelligence.”

The United States has implemented strict export controls on advanced AI chips needed for the development and deployment of more advanced frontier models. China is trying to develop its own advanced chips, but is somewhat hampered by barriers imposed by the United States.

The last meeting between the two leaders last year in South Korea ended without any major progress beyond promises to reduce tariffs and meet again. Analyst Qiu said he expects this time to be different.

“Ultimately, I expect some kind of ‘big deal’ involving the national interests of two big nations,” Qiu said.

This article has been translated from German.