Goodbye Mr. Trump, hello Mr. Putin

Just four days after US President Donald Trump left Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived.

China’s relations with the United States and Russia are of course very different: one is a strategic rival, the other a strategic partner.

But as Beijing continues to host a series of world leaders, it serves to entrench China’s dominance in a rapidly changing global order.

“For the world, it shows that Beijing is where this is happening,” Aaron Glasserman, a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania, told RTÉ News.

“And you can’t make a major decision about a major conflict, whether it’s Iran or Ukraine, without consulting Beijing,” he added.

But for China, it is a balancing act, analysts say.

If Beijing senses that the global balance of power is tilting in its direction as US hegemony declines, the last thing China’s leaders would want to do is disrupt that.

Beijing’s goal, analysts say, is to manage its relationship with the United States in a way that gives it the breathing space it needs to strengthen itself, even if it comes at the expense of its old friends in the Kremlin.

And that’s partly why Mr. Putin left Beijing without the major energy infrastructure deal he was seeking.

“Now that he has Trump in a comfortable place [Xi Jinping] “I don’t want to shake things up,” Mr. Glasserman said, “by being too openly supportive of Russia or challenging America, whether in the Middle East, in Iran, or with Europe and Ukraine.”

“Staying out of the Trump administration’s crosshairs,” he added, “is a top priority for Xi Jinping.”

On the surface, the two summits – Russian and American – seemed strikingly similar.

They both featured a marching honor guard, marching band and children singing while waving flags in front of the Great Hall of the People.

But there were marked differences.

On the one hand, the Chinese host, President Xi Jinping, was a little warmer towards his Russian guest than the American who had just left.

“My old friend,” he called President Putin.

Mr. Putin returned the favor by telling his “dear friend” that it had been three autumns since he last saw him, citing a Chinese proverb.

Mr. Trump also got the red carpet, but there was also a clear message from the start, as we reported here last week.

And it was about the United States staying away from Taiwan.

This, however, was a summit of superpowers who now treat each other — at least with Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi at the helm — as equals.

China, on the other hand, considers Russia its junior partner, as the new world order takes shape.

Echoing the “boundless partnership” forged just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they agreed to “further extend the China-Russia Treaty of Good Neighborhood and Friendly Cooperation.”

“The China-Russia comprehensive strategic coordination partnership for a new era is characterized by its full substance, a high level of mutual trust, a solid foundation and broad prospects,” according to the state-controlled Global Times newspaper.

And as if to seal the deal, the friends wasted no time in going after the guy who had just left the room.

In a joint statement, US foreign and nuclear policy was condemned as “irresponsible”. Mr. Xi said the conflict in the Middle East risks pushing the world into the “law of the jungle.”

Warnings against “neocolonialism” were issued, sounding like a rallying cry to the Global South against the United States and former European colonial powers.

And there was a promise to uphold the UN Charter – although, notably, no mention of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which contravenes it.

“By upholding the international system centered on the United Nations and adhering to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, China and Russia constitute key forces in opposing hegemony, promoting multipolarity and stabilizing the world situation,” the Chinese statement said.

Meanwhile, a subtle message was being telegraphed to Washington: Russia will not be separated from China – an idea that some American policymakers have entertained.

But despite Mr. Putin’s best efforts, he did not walk away with the grand prize he had long coveted: the Power of Siberia II.

It is a gas pipeline that stretches some 2,600 km from the Russian Arctic coast to the city of Shanghai in eastern China.

Russia’s dependence on China to support its war economy in the face of Western sanctions is evident.

In return, China would certainly like cheaper Russian gas. But it has spent recent years diversifying its energy sources to reduce its reliance on a single supplier or global maritime bottleneck.

In fact, following Mr. Trump’s visit, tankers carrying American liquefied natural gas has flown from Louisiana to China, signaling a resumption of energy imports disrupted during last year’s tariff war.

China, however, wants greater access to the Russian Arctic – a key strategic presence in the High North that is growing in value as the polar ice caps melt.

The joint statement mentions the deepening of their cooperation there and castigates the United States and its allies for “the increasing militarization of high latitudes”.

The Arctic must be preserved as a “territory of peace, stability and low military-political tensions”, we read.

Russia, China and NATO countries have all increased their military activity in the region in recent years.

Donald Trump infamously toyed with the idea of ​​seizing Greenland, a European territory, citing national security concerns.

Russia once jealously guarded its access to the Arctic from China, but was forced to open it up as a price for China’s support.

Now that the Americans and Russians have left the city, Mr. Xi may plan a trip to meet North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-Un, according to South Korean media.

Like China and Iran, North Korea is supporting the Russian assault on Ukraine with technical and logistical support.

North Korea has also sent tens of thousands of troops to the front lines, earning the internationally sanctioned regime about $13 billion, according to an analysis by South Korean defense agencies.

This alignment of autocracies including China, Russia, North Korea and Iran has been dubbed by some analysts “the axis of upheaval.”

“CRINK” is another popular acronym in foreign policy circles, referring to China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Writing in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2024, foreign policy analysts Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine argued that deepening cooperation between these four countries would disrupt and create alternatives to the Western-led international order.

The easing of international sanctions against Iran and North Korea is a good example.

Experts debate the group’s strength and cohesion beyond a loose coalition, held together more by anti-Western sentiment than strategic unity.

At least for now, there is little comparison to be made with Western alliances like NATO, according to Mr. Glasserman of the University of Pennsylvania.

China’s grand strategy, he said, is to become an integral and central part of the global economic system.

“If you want to put it on one axis of chaos, you also have to put it on a set of other axes, because it is very deeply embedded in many other groups of countries,” he said.

As Mr. Xi continues his whirlwind of international diplomacy, perhaps he seeks to keep his friends close, with an eye toward keeping his enemies closer.