Erdogan prepares to take on the role of strongman

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan prepared Monday for the challenge of leading Turkey into the promised “new era” as a strongman president after his election victory, as his party began to implement the transfer of power.

As prime minister since 2003, Erdogan has sought to modernize Turkey and take a more assertive stance on the world stage, but is seen by his opponents as an increasingly authoritarian figure intent on Islamizing Turkish society.

He will now become the country’s first directly elected president following Sunday’s election victory, with his inauguration scheduled for August 28. He could well serve two five-year terms, remaining in power until 2024.

Attention will now turn to who becomes the next prime minister to lead the ruling Islamic-backed Justice and Development Party (AKP) into the 2015 parliamentary elections.

Turkish supporters hold a photo of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as they celebrate his victory in the first round of the presidential election in Istanbul on August 10, 2014.

Bulent Kilic, AFP

AKP spokesperson Huseyin Celik announced that the party would hold an extraordinary congress on August 27, a day before the inauguration, to agree on a new prime minister to replace Erdogan.

This means that Erdogan – who clearly has no desire to take any break – will remain in his current position until the very last moment, when he succeeds the current Abdullah Gul.

“We will agree on a name based on common sense,” Celik said, adding that a meeting of top AKP members on Monday did not discuss names.

Erdogan won 51.79 percent of the vote, main opposition challenger Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu 38.44 percent and Kurdish candidate Selahattin Demirtas 9.76 percent, according to the final vote count.

A woman votes for the Turkish presidential election at a polling station in Istanbul on August 10, 2014.

Gurcan Öztürk, AFP

Turnout was 74.12 percent, a figure that would be considered high in many countries, but down sharply from the 89 percent recorded in Turkey’s local elections in March.

– Gul joins the AKP –

The Cumhuriyet daily said Erdogan’s failure to get more than 55 percent, as his strategists had hoped, had changed opinion within the AKP about the new prime minister.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) takes a walkabout on the day of the Turkish presidential election, August 10, 2014, in Istanbul.

Ozan Kose, AFP

More and more voices are now being raised for Gul – considered a moderate and conciliatory character – to take this position, according to the press release.

Gul announced on Tuesday that he would return to the AKP after leaving the presidency. In accordance with Turkish law, he severed all ties with the party he helped found when he took office.

“I am president until August 28 and after that it is completely natural that I return to my party,” Gül told reporters in Ankara.

His comment intensified speculation that Gül could become prime minister and appeared to quell speculation about a public split with Erdogan.

The other option is Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, an influential figure and staunch Erdogan loyalist who would be likely to carry out his master’s orders.

As Erdogan prepares to strengthen the president’s powers – which in recent years has been a largely ceremonial role – he may need to tread more carefully after a weaker-than-expected victory.

“This will have implications for how he approaches the new presidency, he will have to be more careful,” said Ali Carkoglu, a professor at Istanbul’s Koc University.

Erdogan is seeking a more American-style executive presidency, but that will prove tricky within the confines of the current constitution. The AKP has pledged to work towards a new basic law after the 2015 elections.

“If the head of this new regime makes decisions contrary to the constitution, we will live in an environment of constant volatility, with a constitutional crisis to come,” warned Kadri Gursel, columnist for the Milliyet newspaper.

Ratings agency Fitch said the result “does little to mitigate the political risk” weighing on Turkey’s credit profile.

In his victory speech delivered from the balcony of the AKP headquarters in Ankara, Erdogan emphasized reconciliation after a sometimes bitter campaign.

“Today we close an era and take the first step towards a new era,” he said.

– ‘Distinct advantage’ –

OSCE observers highlighted “unbalanced media coverage” during the campaign and said there was a “clear advantage” for Erdogan, whose advertising dominated television and billboards.

Before the end of his first presidential term, Erdogan will have been in power longer than Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the modern Turkish state in 1923 and still considered a national hero.

Many secular Turks bitterly accuse Erdogan of squandering Ataturk’s legacy by gradually Islamizing the country and imposing one-man rule.

Their anger erupted during deadly protests in 2013, sparked by plans to build a shopping center on the site of Gezi Park in central Istanbul.

In his victory speech, Erdogan called on his opponents who call him a “dictator” to question themselves instead of criticizing him.

In a joint statement, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso called on Erdogan to maintain the traditional “conciliatory role” of the presidency.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also praised Erdogan, saying their countries must work together to bring peace to a troubled region.