Donald Trump doesn’t like audience costs

Last week, Donald Trump and his social media team posted several messages essentially asking Americans to calm down about the war in Iran. One message from Trump in particular stood out:

Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good deal for the United States and those who are with us. But don’t Democrats and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans understand that it is MUCH harder for me to do my job well and negotiate, when political hackers continue to “chirp” negatively, at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Sit back and relax, everything will work out in the end – it always does! President DJT

Let’s put aside the fact that it’s impossible for Trump to say almost anything without sounding a little rapist. The more intriguing question is: why does he think negative tweets make negotiation more difficult? Why would outside comments affect negotiations that are going so well that Trump has declared them almost complete for weeks now? David Graham of The Atlantic newspaper said it best: “For once in his life, Donald Trump wishes less attention was paid to him. »

Graham and others likely believe this is due to Trump’s immature leadership, which leaves him “upset by their criticism.” But a little later, Graham also writes that Trump “seems very reactive to comments from the Republican Party. Last weekend, he appeared to walk back a rumored deal with Iran after attacks from his hawkish allies, including Senators Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Now he is worried about public criticism again.”

The hard-working team here at Drezner’s World thinks there’s a simple explanation for this: Trump is trying — and, more importantly, failing — to minimize his audience costs.

In the international relations literature, audience cost is commonly defined as “the domestic political cost that leaders incur from their constituents if they escalate a foreign policy crisis and are then perceived to backtrack.” In this case, Trump has undoubtedly aggravated a foreign policy crisis with Iran and absolutely does not want to pay the political price for his retreat.

It could now be argued that Trump’s love of truthful hyperbole and the fact that he is in office in a hyper-polarized era could reduce the costs of his audience in the event of a pushback. Surely his MAGA base will accept whatever political explanation he offers, right? The hard-working staff at Spoiler Alerts suggested just such a thing during Trump’s first term, and there is evidence that presidents can influence public perceptions in ways that reduce audience costs.

Besides, as Politico’s Nahal Toosi points out, a little diplomatic creativity could help grease the wheels of a ceasefire — and by “diplomatic creativity” I mean a serious way of shaping the truth. “It is difficult to find successful major diplomatic negotiations in history that did not require some level of deception or, at least, intentional confusion,” Toosi writes. “Such maneuvers are not just about public relations. They can be crucial to resolving or at least moving beyond what appear to be irreconcilable differences.

Toosi makes a good point here – and she further argues that Trump is particularly good at selling such deceptions:

Trump appears disturbed by the possibility of having to strike a similar deal with Iran and determined to come out on top in any comparison.

Fortunately, Trump is particularly capable of the contortions that such a deal would require. He has, at best, a “situation” with the truth. This is, after all, a man who still insists he won the 2020 election and claims to have ended wars that weren’t wars.

“Since when has the search for truth been a barrier to agreement in Trumpian diplomacy? asked Rob Malley, who covered the Iran issue during the Obama and Biden administrations.

We’ve already seen Team Trump ignore Iran-related downsides. At the start of the war, it effectively eased sanctions on Iran by granting waivers allowing Tehran to sell oil already at sea. The administration’s goal was to calm energy markets troubled by the conflict.

Toosi may be right, but I have my doubts. In this case, Trump finds himself in a unique political bind because he cannot reframe how a deal will be evaluated.

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