Trump in defeat – The Atlantic

Updated at 11:05 a.m. ET June 17, 2026

President Trump lost. His war against Iran promises to end in a modest time frame with the signing of a ceasefire agreement later this week. The United States finds itself weaker – diminished militarily, strategically, economically and perhaps morally.

The war, which the United States fought on the side of Israel, achieved none of the goals Trump initially announced. Instead, it only empowered hard-liners in Tehran and arguably emboldened them to one day seek nuclear weapons. Even so, the president was so desperate for the war to end that he repeatedly backed away from his threats — allowing Iran to bluff — and blamed his close ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for responding to attacks in the region in a way that jeopardized negotiations.

Trump will admit none of this. He has spent recent days furiously presenting the tentative deal as a clear victory, and he has chafed at unflattering comparisons to the deal President Obama struck with Iran more than a decade ago, his aides and outside advisers told me. Trump, they said, has privately denounced Iran hawks, some of whom are among his closest allies in the Republican Party, for questioning the strength of the deal. Within the administration, there are divisions over the deal, but Trump has sided with those who advocate ending the war under any conditions as fears grow over the economic consequences for Americans and the political costs for Republicans in the midterms.

Trump’s own anger masks a desperate desire to find a way out of a conflict that has not played out as he expected, an outcome that has threatened to leave the United States — and Trump — reduced in the eyes of the world. For a decade, Trump dominated the world stage and wielded extraordinary executive power. But he now finds himself saddled with weak poll numbers and disgruntled Republicans, and he may soon have to deal with a Democratic Congress. His lame duck evolution is accelerating, and the political world is poised to soon look beyond him and focus on the 2028 contenders who hope to succeed him. World leaders, once intimidated, began to challenge him. Trump’s defeat in Iran, and the manner in which he lost, could accelerate his decline from relevance.

It’s generally not a vote of confidence for your deal when you don’t let anyone else read it. But Trump and his team have threatened to return the Iran deal only after it is signed Friday in Geneva. Officials said the deal would extend the ceasefire for the next 60 days and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the United States to abandon its naval blockade and once again allow oil to flow from the region. Although Iran agreed not to collect royalties across the strait for the next 60 days, it (according to Iranian state media) left the door open for such a move afterward — and the deal delays resolving Iran’s uranium enrichment program, although Trump has presented it as his urgent motivation for war. The president’s top negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, supported the deal, as did Vice President Vance, who promoted it in planned television appearances to sell his new book. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and others have expressed quiet reservations about how the deal will be implemented, according to four outside advisers and senior White House officials who, like others, spoke with me on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Read: Trump may already be a lame duck

The deal also alarmed Iran hawks in the Republican Party. Mark Levin, the right-wing radio host who made the case for war, posted on social media his disbelief that Trump had reprimanded Netanyahu and that the deal remains shrouded in secrecy: “I’ve been asking for days, why can’t we, the people, see this damn memorandum of understanding? talks. Erick Erickson, a conservative commentator, went so far as to declare that “Trump surrendered to Iran.” And Marc Thiessen, a former aide to President George W. Bush whom the White House consulted during the war, was one of several conservative voices to warn that Trump’s emerging framework looks a lot like Obama’s deal.

This idea infuriated the president. A longtime Trump confidant told me that Trump “was angered by the dissent” — particularly the comparison to Obama — from once-loyal Republicans. Trump reflexively tried to destroy everything about the former president. He mocked the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program, during his first presidential campaign and withdrew from it during his first term. But the move allowed Iran to work on its enrichment program. That prompted Trump, a year ago next week, to authorize a massive bombing campaign that razed uranium enrichment facilities. Despite Trump’s claims that Iran’s nuclear stockpiles had been destroyed, negotiations resumed earlier this year over the fate of Tehran’s program, until they were scuttled when the United States and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran in late February.

In the first days, the strikes, pushed by Netanyahu, killed Iran’s supreme leader and inflicted extraordinary damage on his army and artillery. But Iran has shown resilience, attacking its Persian Gulf neighbors, taking control of the Strait of Hormuz and plunging the world into an energy crisis. The price of gas has skyrocketed around the world, including in the United States. Trump’s already shaky poll numbers fell further, and he began looking for a way out. He tried to intimidate Iran into a deal, at one point vowing to destroy “its entire civilization,” but backed away from every threat, leaving him open to Tehran’s mockery.

As the war dragged on, it became clear that Trump’s goals in the conflict would not be achieved. Iran’s navy was damaged, but Tehran’s ballistic missile capability survived, as did its ties to mandated militias such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Tehran’s hardline regime appears ready to sell oil again and receive up to $300 billion in funding from Gulf states, which it could use to rebuild. Iran has strengthened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and demonstrated that it can close the waterway at will. Although Tehran has promised not to build nuclear weapons, no enforcement mechanisms have been put in place. And much to the surprise of some Iran hawks, Trump yesterday appeared to backtrack on his earlier promise to seize uranium, saying: “You could make your argument: ‘Why are you bothering?’ Because it doesn’t really have any value.

Read: The Doha Connection

Iran appears to have emerged from the conflict with the ability to control Israel’s freedom to strike Lebanon and potentially elsewhere; In recent days, Trump has criticized Netanyahu for endangering the ceasefire and called on him to call off an attack on Beirut. Trump’s remarks, including calling the prime minister a “very difficult guy,” threaten to widen the divide between the United States and its longtime Middle East ally. Despite Trump’s rebukes, Netanyahu insisted that Israel would continue to authorize attacks it deems necessary for self-defense.

“The president has decided it’s over,” one of the senior administration officials told me. “That’s all that matters now. And Netanyahu will have to listen, period.”

The White House, in defending the deal, stressed that any financial aid to the Iranians is results-based, and that Tehran will only receive that funding if it keeps the strait open and maintains its commitment not to develop a nuclear weapon. Olivia Wales, a White House spokeswoman, told me in a statement that “what the President has accomplished on the battlefield and at the negotiating table is nothing short of remarkable and will strengthen American security for many years to come.”

The war cost Trump dearly. This shook the country’s economy. The Pentagon estimated it had spent about $29 billion on the conflict as of mid-May, but independent experts estimate it has spent tens of billions more. The US military’s ammunition reserves are depleted, jeopardizing its ability to defend its interests in Asia and Europe. The failure of the United States, despite its overwhelming military might, to bring Iran to its knees could encourage China, Russia or North Korea to take aggressive action. In the eyes of many, Washington has undermined its moral standing around the world; Promises to help the Iranian people rise up were not kept and more than 170 people, most of them children, were killed by a US strike on a girls’ school in the first hours of the war. In total, more than 3,000 people have been killed in the conflict in Iran, according to Iranian officials. Thirteen American service members were also killed.

The outcome of the war could usher in a new phase of Trump’s presidency. He is unlikely to abandon his adventurism on the world stage, and his aides told me that he is eager to turn his attention to Cuba soon — seeking regime change, probably through economic pressure, but not ruling out military force — and that he may reconsider his bid for Greenland. This week, at the G7 summit, he also reaffirmed his ambition to help end the Russian-Ukrainian war. His triumph in Venezuela seems like a distant memory. European leaders are now standing up to him. Chinese President Xi Jinping did not offer him the trade deal he wanted.

Read: Oil prices may not return to normal anytime soon

In his country, Trump remains the most powerful political figure. But these small acts of Republican defiance add up. He suffered a series of losses in court, notably in his efforts to remake the nation’s capital in his image. Democrats are favored to capture at least one chamber of Congress in November, which would give them the opportunity to slow Trump’s agenda and open investigations into his administration. Once the midterm elections are over, the race to replace Trump will begin. While this will further diminish Trump, he is unlikely to go out with a whimper.

This article originally stated that the official estimate of the costs of the conflict had not been updated since late April. In fact, it was updated in mid-May, when the Pentagon estimated the cost at around $29 billion.

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