The consequences of ten years of Brexit, by Editorial

On June 23, 2016, ten years ago Tuesday, the British decided by referendum to leave the European Union. A slim majority of 51.9% tipped the scales in favor of divorce. A consultation which polarized and divided the country, also in strictly generational terms, since a good part of young people were in favor of remaining in the EU, while those over 50 were rather in favor of leaving. England and Wales chose to march; Scotland, Northern Ireland and London will remain. On January 31, 2020, the political break became effective, ending 47 years of historic relationship.

The repercussions of the referendum on the economy and trade have gradually become evident over the years, compounded by the decision to opt for a hard Brexit. The United Kingdom’s cohesion has been seriously tested in recent years and a major reform of its foreign policy has become necessary. The idea of ​​rapprochement with the EU is gaining ground, but in the absence of consensus, Keir Starmer’s weakened Labor government prefers to make pragmatic adjustments rather than rethink Brexit. The candidates to succeed him at Downing Street have a different vision. Former minister Wes Streeting has opened the door to returning to the EU “one day”, and current Manchester mayor Andy Burnham says Brexit has been “damaging” to the country, but vows to “look to the future” instead of reopening debates about a possible return to the EU bloc.

A decade after the referendum, 63% of Britons would be in favor of returning to the European Union

Brexit did not bring the United Kingdom the benefits expected by its supporters, among whom stood out Boris Johnson, who seized the slogan “Take back control” to claim the sovereign right to make its own decisions without so-called dependencies or external impositions. Ten years ago, the UK voted for Brexit with the promise of more control, more prosperity and a freer economy. But this “Singapore on the Thames” promised today by its defenders looks much more like an economy on the ropes, with investors selling British debt and the Treasury forced to pay more and more to place its bonds.

Life outside the EU means more bureaucracy, fewer EU workers and more foreigners, more expensive food and transport chaos. Over those ten years, the UK economy has lost between 6 and 8 percent of its GDP, employment has fallen by around 3 percent, productivity has fallen by 3 percent, business investment is between 12 and 18 percent below its expected trajectory, new trade deals with non-EU countries have not made up for the loss of business with Europe, and the cost of living has skyrocketed.

Most Britons now believe that leaving the EU was a mistake. The economy, according to analysts and figures, is the area in which the clearly negative effects of Brexit have been most appreciated. This is largely due to the UK’s departure from the Common Market, which was replaced, after years of grueling negotiations, by the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

GDP lost 8%, productivity and employment fell 3% and the cost of living increased

Keir Starmer made it clear that no turning back was envisaged and that red lines such as the single market and the customs union persisted, but he opened the door to a resumption of relations with a bloc with which London is condemned to deal. According to a recent poll, 63% of British voters would favor returning to the EU, a figure which reflects a significant change from the years following exit. Paradoxically, the leader of the right-wing populist Reform UK party, Nigel Farage, is taking advantage of this with a lead in the polls, who, despite being one of the main promoters of Brexit, has managed to channel popular discontent and migratory tensions to reach more than 30% support among the British.

A decade after the referendum, the failed promise to regain control coexists with a government whose prime minister is on the ropes, increasingly dependent on the bond market for funding, the Bank of England to contain inflation and a strained fiscal base to support spending. But a return to the EU remains unlikely despite popular support, and Brussels does not seem very interested in accelerating integration with the United Kingdom either. Ten years later, the future of relations between London and Brussels is today as uncertain and difficult as Starmer’s survival as head of the British government.