Russia is pressuring Belarus to join the war in Ukraine and future operations. against NATO

Russia is pressuring its ally Belarus to open a new front against the war with Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

Current and former Russian and European officials familiar with the matter told the WSJ that Russia asked to use Belarusian territory to launch even more drones into Ukraine. The Kremlin has also used Belarus, where it notably stores tactical nuclear weapons, to carry out operations against NATO countries in Europe.

In 2022, Russia used Belarusian territory to quickly invade Kyiv. However, after Ukrainian forces pushed back the Russian army, Moscow stopped using Belarus to launch attacks.

While the situation along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border remains tense, Minsk has since remained somewhat outside the war.

“We have repeatedly said that it is absolutely unacceptable for the war between Ukraine and Russia to spill over into Belarusian territory,” President Alexander Lukashenko said earlier this month, adding that his country is “very vulnerable militarily.”

Will Alexander Lukashenko redouble his efforts in his relations with Russia?

Several U.S. officials have visited Belarus since Trump’s election and tried to distance the autocratic Lukashenko from Putin.

The Trump administration lifted some sanctions on Belarus in September, and in exchange, Lukashenko gradually released about 500 political prisoners.

But as the war drags on, Lukashenko appears keen to strengthen relations with his close ally, Putin.

Moscow is using more ground drone stations in Belarus, where about 2,000 Russian troops are stationed, and Belarus is selling oil and gas to Russia as the fuel crisis worsens, the WSJ reported.

Moscow still depends on Belarus, which has two large refineries, to process Russian oil and sell gasoline, diesel and jet fuel back to Russia.

In the first five months of this year, rail shipments of gasoline from Belarusian refineries to Russia increased almost 13 times compared to the same period last year, while shipments of Belarusian diesel tripled, according to Reuters sources.

Zelensky warns Lukashenko to dismantle Russian drone ground stations

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had received information that Minsk and Moscow were communicating about possible plans to use Belarusian territory to attack southern Ukraine or the northern Baltic states.

He gave Lukashenko a week to destroy Russian drone stations and appeared to warn that he would hit them.

“I think a week will be enough for him to do it. If he doesn’t do it, we will do it,” Zelesnky said at a news conference earlier this month in kyiv.

On Wednesday, Zelensky said the stations had stopped working.

“When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he must be honest, at least with his own people,” Zelensky said earlier this month. “It’s not just him who could be dragged into war: his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia.”

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said French President Emmanuel Macron had warned him against taking further action in the war, according to the report.

Macron reportedly told Lukashenko that he had intelligence suggesting Belarus was going to take further steps in the war, and warned him against doing so.

An aide to the French president confirmed the call to the WSJ and said Macron “underlined the risks Belarus faces if it gets drawn into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”

A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the operations confirmed the WSJ report and added that Moscow’s ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, was threatening to cut financial lifelines.

The sources who spoke to WSJ said there was no physical indication that a Russian attack from Belarus was imminent, aside from drone stations, but that the possibility still existed.

They told the WSJ that if Belarus was used for a Russian attack, it could be aimed at testing NATO defenses or further attempting to undermine support for Ukraine.

On Thursday, the Kremlin denied the WSJ information.

“Belarus is not participating,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of Belarusian involvement in the war.

Also on Thursday, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said Minsk perceived a “blatant” attempt to drag it into the war in Ukraine, warning of growing external pressure on the country.

Khrenin did not specify who he believed was behind these efforts, but appeared to point the finger at the West.

“Efforts are underway to prolong, or even expand, the burning conflict unleashed by the West in Ukraine. Today we are fully aware of a blatant attempt to drag Belarus into the war,” Khrenin said in comments published by his ministry.

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