Cooper holds 14-point lead over Whatley as Trump remains underwater

A new statewide poll brings good news statewide for North Carolina Democrats: Former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley by 14 points in the open U.S. Senate race, with President Donald Trump’s approval remaining underwater and Democrats ahead in nearly every runoff.

These results come from the latest Catawba College-YouGov survey, released June 23. In the poll, Cooper had 48% support to Whatley’s 34%, with 15% undecided. The margin is virtually unchanged from March, when Cooper led by 15 points.

“Cooper’s advantage is not simply a function of Democratic support,” said Michael Bitzer, director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, which wrote and funded the survey. “His lead is driven by independents, who currently support him more than two to one over Whatley. That independent vote can often be a deciding factor in North Carolina’s statewide elections.”

Independents supported Cooper 50% to 23%, with nearly a quarter still undecided. Cooper held 83% of his own party, while Whatley held 77% of Republicans. The race has split along the president’s views: Two-thirds of those who approve of Trump intend to vote for Whatley, while 77 percent of those who disapprove favor Cooper.

The poll also showed a gender divide, with women favoring Cooper by 20 points, 49% to 29%, and men split more closely, 46% to 40%. Regionally, Cooper led by 37 points among urban voters, by 11 in rural areas and by five in urban suburbs. Whatley was run by five people in the surrounding suburban and exurban counties.

The Senate numbers come against a political backdrop that Bitzer described as a classic midterm referendum on the president. Trump’s approval stood at 43%, with disapproval at 54%. This is virtually the same as the 42-55% split recorded in March.

“This year seems to be setting up as a classic midterm environment: a referendum on the president and his party,” Bitzer said. “Cooper has a significant portion of North Carolinians who disapprove of the president, representing the majority of likely voters so far.”

Trump’s position was strengthened by his party: 86% of North Carolina Republicans approved of him, compared to 13% who disapproved. Independents brought the overall figure down, with two-thirds disapproving. The president’s strongest region was the outlying counties, where 54 percent of the vote was in favor.

Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, by contrast, posted an approval rating of 53 percent, including 53 percent from independents and 36 percent from Republicans.

The survey also found signs that Republican voters are redefining how they view themselves. In October 2025 and January 2026, 55% of Republican-aligned respondents said they were more supporters of Trump than of the Republican Party. In June, the survey recorded a 24-point shift towards party identification. Among 2024 Trump voters, the share identifying as “Trump Republican” fell from 60% in January to 43% in June.

“GOP voters remain overwhelmingly Republican, but many seem less likely than six months ago to define themselves primarily by their support for Donald Trump,” Bitzer said. He pointed to suburban respondents and women as drivers of what he called a “cooling” toward a Trump-centered identity.

Democrats also led the voting tests. In the U.S. House of Representatives generic vote, Democratic candidates increased from 46% to 37%, a three-point gain from March. Democrats led the state House of Representatives by six points and the Senate by eight. In the state Supreme Court contest, Democrat Anita Earls held a 5-point advantage over Republican Sarah Stevens.

Meanwhile, both parties in Congress remained underwater, with 54 percent disapproval from congressional Republicans and 51 percent from Democrats.

The online survey of 1,000 weighted North Carolinians was conducted by YouGov June 1-10, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.83 percentage points.

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