The economy topples British prime ministers. Could Canada be next?

Morgan McLellan is co-founder and managing partner of Sovereigna strategic, financial and crisis communications consultancy firm.

Canadian leaders should pay close attention to the turmoil engulfing British politics.

Over the past decade, Britain has changed prime ministers even as leading economic indicators periodically suggested conditions were improving. Yet many voters have never felt these gains in their own lives.

Rising housing costs, weak wage growth, stagnant living standards and growing financial pressure ultimately proved more politically powerful than favorable economic data.

Canada is increasingly facing the same conditions. Housing accessibility has deterioratedproductivity growth remains weak, household costs continue to riseand many young Canadians doubt they can achieve the standard of living their parents enjoyed.

The lesson from Britain is not that Canada is doomed to the same political instability. This is because economic statistics offer limited political protection when voters believe they are lagging behind.

While British MPs have become accustomed to replacing prime ministers when economic frustration outweighs party loyalty, Canadian politicians have been much more reluctant to show sitting leaders the door. In recent history, only two Liberal prime ministers have been expelled by their own party rather than by voters.

This does not mean that Canada is immune. What appears to be a uniquely British problem could instead be a wake-up call for countries like Canada, where the gap between economic statistics and lived experience continues to widen.

The revolving door of number 10

Britain has had six prime ministers in a decade. The list of victims is bipartisan and ideologically incoherent: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and now Keir Starmer.

These were not leaders undone by a single scandal, although Johnson had a few, nor by a shared philosophy. They were defeated by the same verdict: If the economy doesn’t seem to be working, someone has to pay the price.

Starmer’s exit is the darkest version of this model yet. He won a landslide victory in 2024, one of the largest majorities in modern British history. This won him votes in Parliament. This did not earn him the patience of the electorate. Less than two years later, he packed his bags.

The Affordability Problem in Canada

Canada has already experienced a version of this dynamic.

Pressures related to the cost of living and housing affordability ultimately ended Justin Trudeau’s political career after nearly a decade in power. The problem was not a policy failure, but a growing sense that the economic market was broken for young Canadians and the middle class.

The lesson on both sides of the Atlantic is the same: voters care less about economic statistics than about their own financial reality.

Governments point the finger at GDP growth, employment gains or investment announcements. Instead, voters are looking at rent, mortgage renewals, grocery bills and whether their paychecks still stretch as far as before.

Will Carney’s credentials be enough?

Unlike his predecessor or his European counterparts, Prime Minister Mark Carney came to power with a proven track record of dealing with financial crises.

Carney built his reputation before entering politics: he helped Canada through the 2008 financial crisis, then led the Bank of England through Brexit. These credentials earned him political goodwill and more patience than Canadians gave his predecessor.

But this patience is being tested.

Statistics Canada recently confirmed that the economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

The data came a day after Carney promoted Canada in New York as a safe place to invest, giving Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre the opportunity to claim the government was failing the national economy.

Economists may debate the importance of a technical recession, but the policy is much simpler and presents a communications challenge for a government that has spent a year emphasizing strong fiscal fundamentals and now must explain why a downturn occurred on its watch.

When economic reality takes precedence over political image

This is the trap that awaits leaders who govern on the basis of their credentials. A CV is ultimately about skills. But when economic reality contradicts this version of events, voters tend to rely on their own experience rather than any CV.

Carney’s economic pedigree earned him the benefit of the doubt that Trudeau had long exhausted. But degrees alone are not enough to reduce housing costs, improve affordability, or change disappointing data. Expertise can save time. It cannot indefinitely overcome economic frustration.

Economic anxiety has become indifferent to ideology. Britain has had half a dozen prime ministers in a decade, each judged less by their political philosophy than by voters’ views on whether the economy was improving.

Canada is not there yet. But if economic frustration continues to define politics, Canadian leaders may soon face the same question as their British counterparts: When voters stop believing that the economy works for them, how long will they continue to believe in the people charged with running it?