A crisis in Taiwan is coming – and Xi may not wait | American Business Institute

Something threatening is happening in the Western Pacific, and the United States is not prepared to deal with it.

Earlier this month, China’s coast guard contacted three vessels in international waters near eastern Taiwan, demanding that they identify their points of origin and destination. China has not stopped these ships. But that was assert the right to control maritime traffic near Taiwan – and, perhaps, anticipate a major crisis that could arise in just a year or two.

Many China watchers fear a crisis in Taiwan could occur next year. According to US intelligence agencies, General Secretary Xi Jinping is said to have ordered the People’s Liberation Army is ready to act against Taiwan in 2027. Yet the critical moment may instead be January 2028. That is when Taiwan will hold its next presidential election and Xi may decide to force the issue.

Of course, things seem calm down now. The last major crisis in Taiwan occurred almost four years ago, when Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited the island. US-China relations appear to be in temporary truce: Xi and President Donald Trump committed to ‘constructive strategic stability’ May meeting in Beijing.

But don’t be fooled.

Xi is gathering the military force needed to subdue Taiwan and force unification with the mainland, while gradually increasing daily pressure in actions other than war. Taiwan is constantly ringed by Chinese warships. Chinese forces challenge Taiwan’s airspace and waters; they proceed on short notice exercises that simulate an invasion or blockade. Beijing continually hits Taiwan with cyberattacks, disinformation and espionage. Things only seem calm because Xi has normalized this pernicious, multi-frontal war of nerves.

China’s goal is to win without fighting, while preparing the military hammer if a fight is necessary. Xi seeks to demoralize the Taiwanese population and sow doubt about American support. He hopes that an isolated and vulnerable society will eventually accept forced unification. And as soon as possible: Xi, 73 doesn’t all the time in the world.

Its strategy therefore requires bringing a docile Taiwanese government to power. Which makes the 2028 elections a hot spot.

Chinese propaganda outlets laugh Taiwan President Lai Ching-te as a pro-independence radical. Xi will not stand idly by if Lai rallies his Democratic Progressive Party base with strong statements on Taiwanese sovereignty. Xi could seek to influence the election through greater coercion – for example, missile tests and large, nerve-wracking military exercises – designed to show that a Lai victory would bring another four years of danger.

However, since 2016, such pressures have pushed Taiwanese voters to far among Beijing’s favorite candidates. A second possibility is therefore that Xi reacts badly to an electoral result that he does not like.

Xi’s preferred candidate is Cheng Li-wun, the woefully naive chairman of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party. who traveled in Beijing this spring to seek closer ties with the mainland. But Cheng won his position in a closed-door vote limited to KMT party members. She played politics with Taiwanese security by blocking critical parts of a special budget intended to arm the island against the Chinese threat.

Cheng’s policies could push back moderate voters who already distrust the KMT on national security issues. Lai — despite being weak but improving approval ratings – could sneak into re-election. Or maybe the KMT will win by abandoning Cheng in favor of a more sober candidate on a strategic level.

Either way, Taiwan would have a government that would not go as far or as fast in unification as Xi wants. The resulting frustration could lead him to increase the pressure even more.

This would not require an invasion. Building on recent Coast Guard initiatives, Xi could impose A “customs quarantine” instead. Beijing could selectively harass air and sea traffic to Taiwan. It could require Taiwan-bound ships to clear customs on the mainland first. It would be about shocking the Taiwanese system by showing how easily China can suffocate the island – and how difficult it would be for the United States to fight back.

Breaking a quarantine would be difficult under any circumstances, because it would require the United States to exert counterpressure on Beijing – perhaps trade, financial and technological sanctions combined with international diplomatic condemnation and preparations to break the quarantine militarily, if necessary – without provoking unwanted escalation. Unfortunately, Trump’s fall in the trade war that it launched last year gave Beijing the impression that Washington would not risk a coercive competition.

Indeed, Trump reported that he has little appetite for a crisis in Taiwan; he drives slowly arms sales so as not to spoil his next meeting with Xi, scheduled for September. The Pentagon is focused more on the threat of invasion than on quarantine or other gray zone scenarios. And by early 2028, the United States will be consumed by its own electoral madness. Xi could push hard in hopes of breaking Taiwan while Washington’s attention is elsewhere

The United States should take certain steps to prepare. Trump expected to conclude $14 billion plan arms sale in Taipei, showing that he will not appease Xi at the expense of Taiwan’s security. The United States must refine its options to address China’s economic pressure points, such as further restricting its access to jet engine components and advanced semiconductors. It is expected to step up preparations with Japan and other partners to help Taiwan in a crisis. Admittedly, the Trump administration is expanding this military cooperation through more ambitious multilateral exercises, deploying missiles and other advanced capabilities, and other means. And while giving the Lai government a strong hug, Washington should also discourage inflammatory speeches on the campaign trail.

Firm deterrence and careful diplomacy will both be necessary if “constructive strategic stability” turns into the next big Taiwan crisis in 2028.