“Baaten Hain, Baaton Ka Kya”: why India-Pakistan Track II, III, IV… diplomacy is a song on repeat | News from India

The limits of India-Pakistan diplomacy follow levels II, III, IV…. Remember that classic Manna Dey from Manoj Kumar’s Upkar? “Kasme, waade, pyaar, wafa, Sab baatein hain, baaton ka kya.” Promises, vows, love, loyalty, all are just words. Nearly six decades later, this Upkar lament could be the theme song of India-Pakistan diplomacy: track two, three or four and so on. Here’s what sparked this thought. More than 100 prominent citizens from India and Pakistan have written an open letter to the Prime Ministers of the two countries. The letter lists “confidence-building measures” to restore dialogue and lasting peace. The appeal, led by Center for Peace and Progress President OP Shah, reads like a wish list constructed over decades. Restore full diplomatic relations. Bring back the high commissioners. Resume normal visas. Reopen a global dialogue. Relaunch discussions on Jammu and Kashmir, including the framework negotiated between 2004 and 2007. Demilitarize and de-escalate. The signatories include Farooq Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Mani Shankar Aiyar, Manoj Jha, AS Dulat from the Indian side; and from Pakistan, figures such as Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Shamsher Ahmed Khan and Beena Sarwar. But here’s the uncomfortable truth that the letter slips in. India and Pakistan are not stuck just because honest people have not met often enough. They are stuck because the conflict is ideological, political and institutional. They once lived on the same undivided land, but partition arose from the belief that they were distinct political communities with different destinies. This argument continues to obscure any peace effort. Civil society can soften the edges of this story, but it cannot resolve questions of power, territory, terrorism, security and identity. This requires a political settlement, supported by states, and not just by signatures.

What are Track 2 Threads

Talks between India and Pakistan are failing because of who is calling the shots across the border. Pakistan operates on a hybrid governance model: an elected government in Islamabad as the face and the army in Rawalpindi holding the real levers, particularly with regard to Indian policy. This grip has only tightened since Operation Sindoor, with the army chief now carrying the field marshal’s baton. This is why New Delhi’s reaction to the recent Track II chatter has been sharp. Foreign Minister Vikram Misri has dismissed the recent spate of “Track II” reports, saying the government had “no knowledge” of such events. The private meetings, private opinions, retired diplomats and generals in attendance speak only for themselves, he said.

What the government says about Track 2 negotiations

In fact, the remaining bandwidth from Delhi to Islamabad is devoted to harder instruments. At the FATF meeting later this year, India will present video and other evidence of Pakistan’s continued links to terrorism in a bid to put it back on the gray list. A government that prepares files does not seek dialogue. Besides, what is the point of talks if the Pakistani army is not behind it? The elected Prime Minister can sign whatever he wants; the Kashmir file, the India file, the terrorism file are all in Rawalpindi. And with the recent 27th Constitutional Amendment, this arrangement has only become more formal, with the army chief’s powers constitutionally consolidated rather than curtailed. Any dialogue with a civil facade is a conversation with someone who cannot sign the check. And if you want to get a sense of what this establishment does to those who challenge it, consider Imran Khan. Whatever you think of his politics – and he is far from flawless, having used the same hybrid arrangement to come to power before falling out – he was arguably the most genuine star Pakistan has produced in any field. World Cup-winning captain, philanthropist who built a cancer hospital, prime minister. During his prime minister’s time, Imran, aka ‘Kaptan’, was a living example of the advertising slogan ‘owner’s pride, neighbor’s envy’. Today he is behind bars in Adiala Prison, and periodic rumors about his health and even his fate swirl because independent verification is so rare. It is painful to see Imran’s continued internment, even across the border. If a system can make it do this to its biggest star, largely because he crossed the military’s red lines, what guarantees can it really offer on cross-border terrorism, long-term dialogue or Kashmir? If the army remains judge, jury and final arbiter at home, how serious will civil engagement with India be taken in Delhi?

What would really change the scenario?

If we’re honest, only two major types of changes can break this cycle. First, real structural change in Pakistan. This means a slow and painful transition where the military accepts a more restricted professional role; where elected governments will stop looking over their shoulders at all issues related to India; where there is a real consensus that cross-border activism is a strategic liability and not an asset. Without such a reset, Pakistan will remain trapped between economic crises, political upheaval and a permanent state of security. Second, a tenacious policy decision taken in Delhi to test the waters despite structural risks. This has happened before – think of Vajpayee’s busing in Lahore and, later, the 2003 ceasefire; Manmohan Singh’s discreet channel on Kashmir; even the surprise visit to Lahore in 2015 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But each time, the lack of structural change on the other side of the border meant that the next attack, the next crisis, reset the clock. Currently, none of these conditions are visible. Pakistan’s hybrid regime appears more entrenched than reformed. India’s political mood is more hawkish than hopeful. Pran’s character in Upkar, Malang Chacha, sang this line with a one-armed shrug of hard-earned wisdom, not bitterness. That’s about the right posture to watch Diplomacy Track II today: listen to the song, appreciate the sentiment, and remember what the lyrics actually say. Promises and vows are just words. Baaton ka kya?

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