Behind the Headlines: What’s Next for US-China Relations

The US-China summit in May set the stage for renewed dialogue around a host of issues important to both countries. Students from the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs traveled to Beijing shortly after meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. They found policymakers, academics and students more willing to discuss political differences, including trade and the Taiwan issue, in the wake of the summit.

Rory Truex, associate professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton SPIA, studies Chinese politics and theories of authoritarian rule. In this interview, he explains the importance of the Trump-Xi summit and how US-China relations are likely to evolve from there.

Was the Trump-Xi summit an important moment in US-China relations and, if so, what did it achieve?

Rory Truex: The summit was significant in that it took place and could therefore mark some uptick in US-China relations. Both camps seem to have realized the limits of their power and the other’s capacity to inflict economic damage. President Trump has indicated he wants a more productive relationship with China and called Chinese leader Xi Jinping a friend. This statement alone shifts the Overton window of the China debate in Washington, putting the president somewhat out of sync with his own party.

Which policy issues are likely to see progress following the meeting?

RT: The meeting did not produce concrete results, but we may see more dialogue efforts emerge in the months and years to come. The Chinese side has put forward the concept of “constructive strategic stability” to guide the nature of the relationship, which recognizes the broader competitive environment but aims to regularize diplomacy and make the relationship more predictable. This could lead to longer-term progress on thorny issues like trade and even transnational issues like artificial intelligence. [AI] regulation.

What does Xi’s subsequent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin mean for U.S.-China relations now?

RT: This meeting, scheduled shortly after the Trump-Xi summit, shows that China is not willing to sacrifice relations in the interest of strengthening ties with the United States. THE [subsequent] The meeting between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was noticeably warmer and less stilted, and Xi likely views Russia as a more reliable long-term partner.

What areas of divergence remain between the United States and China? Is there potential for alignment in other areas despite them?

RT: There remain huge areas of divergence in the U.S.-China relationship, and the summit did little to resolve most of them. On the US side, serious concerns remain over China’s stance on Taiwan, its relationship with Russia, government intervention in key sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, cyber espionage and human rights abuses, to name a few. The Chinese side likely feels crushed by U.S. economic pressure and is angered by tariffs and export controls on semiconductors and other sensitive technologies. Most of these differences will persist for the foreseeable future, but there are transnational issues on which countries’ interests align. It would be nice to see both governments focus more of their collective energies on climate change, public health, global poverty and AI regulation, but the globalist agenda doesn’t have much influence in either capital at the moment.

Where do you think US-China relations will go from here?

RT: I expect the same thing during the period when Trump and Xi are in power. There will be periodic summits and some minor progress on trade issues. I don’t see a war in the near future or even a new trade war. The AI ​​race, as it continues, will play an even larger role in the discourse, and both sides face an important strategic question. Are the two governments continuing to develop artificial general intelligence at full speed, with the attendant risks? Or are they willing to slow down, or even take a pause, using this time to resolve the alignment problem and manage economic disruption?