The Guardian’s take on Trump and Tehran: everyone loses when the US and Iran play too hard | Editorial

The familiar nature of this cycle should not obscure the seriousness of the consequences of the United States and Iran’s return to threats, strikes and a vain search for an end to the war through escalation. On Sunday, Tehran announced that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. The World Food Program is already feeding 1.5 million fewer people this year due to the illegal war launched by the United States and Israel. Vulnerable countries are suffering the most as existing crises worsen: an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia and 2.3 million in Afghanistan are struggling to meet their basic food needs.

Even de-escalation would not resolve this humanitarian crisis. The full impact on food production has not yet been felt. The strait was key to global fertilizer exports; as prices skyrocketed, many farmers reduced their use. The drying up of remittances from migrant workers in the Gulf is harming Asian and African countries alike.

In Iran itself and Lebanon, thousands of people, including civilians – including many children – have been killed and essential infrastructure destroyed. Iranians are sinking deeper into economic catastrophe and the regime is cracking down harder under the cover of war. Tehran’s retaliation has caused death and damage across the region. Consumers around the world are paying more for energy and food.

Cargo ships anchoring near the Strait of Hormuz. Photograph: AFPTV/AFP/Getty

As the midterms approached, the domestic impact pushed Mr. Trump to enter into a memorandum of understanding (MOU), providing 60 days to negotiate a broader deal. Yet less than a month later, the strikes resumed, after Iran hit ships transiting the strait and the United States retaliated. The issue is a key article in the memorandum of understanding. His imprecision was not an oversight, but an attempt to reconcile contradictory positions. It says Iran will restore navigation, ensure safe passage and work with Oman on the future administration of the strait, with the possibility of future charges apparently left open. Iran interpreted this as a consolidation, not a reversal, of its new control – and targeted ships that then took a separate route coordinated by the United States.

The rhetoric from both sides doesn’t help. Tehran decreed, as it mourned its late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, that revenge for his assassination “must inevitably take place”. Mr Trump responded that the US military would “decimate and destroy all regions of Iran” if he faced an assassination attempt, and called its leaders “scum”. Yet even though Mr. Trump has declared that the memorandum of understanding and ceasefire are over, he maintains that talks will continue. This is not so much a repetition as a catastrophic loop; each iteration increases suspicion and complicates problems. The United States can turn around again to allow Tehran to export oil – but the sector cannot recover when customers do not have confidence.

Ending the war depends on resolving a problem created by the war: Iranian control of the strait. The immediate priority should be to facilitate humanitarian shipments. Beyond that, Oman and others are trying to establish a path out of a crisis that its leaders have failed to find. One proposal would allow navigation fees to be charged, but on a non-mandatory basis and under the auspices of a United Nations agency. This has potential, although leverage probably matters more than profit for a militarized, harsher regime. Mr. Trump wants to claim a triumph, not a compromise. But neither side can achieve a decisive victory, and neither side wants unlimited war, even if they are unwilling to make the necessary concessions. The rest of the world must try to bring them to their senses – or live with the consequences.

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