Trump’s bluster on Iran this week revealed the only thing that really matters to him.

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President Trump’s decision to resume and escalate the war in Iran makes even less sense than his decision four and a half months ago to start war. Even more shocking, Trump announced on Monday that he would also take control of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% toll on all ships passing through it – which, in addition to defying credulity, shatters the tiny bit of moral claim he had to the Iranian government.

On Tuesday, hours later, Trump walked back his demand for a toll — perhaps being told it could double global transportation costs (if it could be enforced) — but offered no details on how the United States would take control of the waterway. Nonetheless, both statements, along with the backpedaling, amplify what has been loud and clear for some time: that Trump makes major decisions on the fly, often without discussing their implications, and that nothing he says should be taken seriously.

The war with Iran has resumed for some time now. The ceasefire, signed on June 17, was always fragile and completely collapsed three weeks later, on July 6, when, in response to Iranian attacks on merchant ships, U.S. forces attacked 80 Iranian military targets, including more than 60 small boats manned by the Revolutionary Guard, and, the next day, struck another 90 targets, including air defense systems, missile and drone storage sites, and supply lines along the Iranian coast.

Then, on Tuesday, Trump reinstated the naval blockade against Iran, which he had lifted as part of last month’s ceasefire.

A statement issued by Central Command claimed that the aim of all this was to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and various installations inside allied countries in the region.

But “degrade” is one of those slippery words in military jargon, meaning that an attack would cause a lot of damage but recognizing, sotto voce, that no one knows how much damage — or, more precisely, what effect that damage might have on the course of the war, much less the chances of victory.

In other words: If hitting more than 13,000 targets in the 38 days from February 28 to April 7 wasn’t enough to achieve any of Trump’s stated war goals (rewiping Iran’s nuclear materials, destroying its military, or changing its regime), it’s hard to imagine how hitting a few hundred more could tip the scales.

In some ways, the war waged so far has proven counterproductive. The assassination of Iran’s entire leadership on the first day paved the way for the Revolutionary Guards – much more militant, oppressive and anti-Western – to take full control of the country. The bombing of numerous civilian structures – including a girls’ school (an accident, but no American has yet taken responsibility or apologized) – has only strengthened the loyalty of many Iranians to the regime or at least assuaged the hope of some dissidents that Washington would be on their side.

Trump’s main objective is now to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for a quarter of the world’s oil. It is worth remembering that before Trump started the war, the strait was free and open – it was not even a topic of discussion. It is now Iran’s fulcrum in its “asymmetric warfare” strategy. Iran will never blunt the enormous firepower possessed by the United States and Israel, but it can exert a formidable counterforce as long as it controls the Strait of Hormuz – and it doesn’t take much to maintain control. A few drones, missiles or small boats filled with dynamite can deter shipping companies from entering this narrow waterway.

Fred Kaplan Trump hasn’t gotten rid of his biggest illusion about Iran Read more

A month ago, in announcing the impending ceasefire, Trump wrote on social media: “I hereby fully authorize the opening of the Strait of Hormuz at no cost. Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump’s claim was just a pretense — the Iranians still controlled the transit — and it appeared even more out of touch with reality when the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, the 14-point document setting out the terms of the ceasefire, was released days later. When the strait was opened, the memorandum of understanding only required Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, free of charge, for 60 days only.” This suggested that Iran would remain responsible for the strait – a privilege it did not enjoy before the war, but which Trump and his under-qualified negotiators are now enshrining.

The Iranians invoke this aspect of the MOU to justify their attacks on certain commercial ships. Their justification is dubious and their behavior reprehensible, but they are right to criticize the United States and Israel for failing to comply with other sections of the document (e.g., the United States lifting frozen Iranian assets and Israel observing a ceasefire in Lebanon).

This is where Trump’s recent statements only worsen our position in the war – and in the world. Monday morning, in an interview on Fox & Friends, he said: “We will become the guardians of the strait. We will strike [Iran] very hard and guard the strait, and probably rule it. As part of this conservatorship, the United States will impose a toll of “20% on all goods shipped”.

First, he did not explain how the United States would take control of the strait, mainly because it has no way of doing so, short of stationing ground troops along its coast on Iranian soil, which Trump is unlikely to do, in part because his “base” would go crazy.

But the assertion of tolls, even briefly advocated, is more revealing. The ironies are multiple. First, in late March, when Iran talked about imposing a toll on ships entering the strait, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the idea of ​​anyone — not just Iran — turning the strait into a “toll system” would be “illegal” and “dangerous for the world.”

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Even more devastating, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mocked Trump’s plan to impose tolls. “POTUS is absolutely right,” he wrote on social media. “Anyone who ensures the safe and secure passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will be FOREVER.” But, he added, Iran will charge less than Trump, noting that “20 percent is of course too much. We will be fair.”

Trump backtracked on the toll plan a day after releasing it, but, like many of his offhand remarks, it revealed his true state of mind. Rubio and others might tout the good principle of free passage on the high seas and even claim that this is why the United States must renew its military pressure on Iran. But for Trump, it’s all about money and almost nothing but money. The war with Iran, as he now sees it, is about who controls the strait and who collects the money for that control. He may have been dissuaded from imposing a toll, but that’s how he thinks and that’s how he defines American interests. The old idea that the United States acts to preserve certain ideals – which, yes, serve its own interests but also preserve a system that benefits others – is no longer believed by the rest of the world. Trump told them, after all, that he – the man twice elected president of the United States – didn’t believe it either.

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