Trump’s regional agenda in the service of Israel

TEHRAN – The United States appears to be coordinating with some countries to reorganize the regional landscape by putting pressure on Syria, Lebanon and Iraq to serve Israeli interests.

Since US President Donald Trump publicly called on Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to intervene militarily in Lebanon and carry out the mission that war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu failed to accomplish against Hezbollah, many political and media circles have been discussing different scenarios.

Analysts believe these include American, Turkish, French, Saudi and Israeli maneuvers aimed at finding a reasonable and practical way to respond to Trump’s call.

Although President al-Sharaa allegedly rejected military intervention in Lebanon, he sent his foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, to review the positions of Lebanese parties, except Hezbollah. Al-Shaibani led a publicity tour in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, which is also considered a stronghold of Turkey-backed Sunni political forces.

Despite reports circulating after French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus indicating France’s rejection of U.S. plans for Syrian militants to fight Hezbollah, Trump did not hesitate to raise the issue during his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8.

This came after Trump repeatedly praised the strength of the Turkish military, which has the second largest army in NATO after the United States. Analysts noted that this could indicate the need to leverage this army to serve shared goals between Ankara and Washington. Turkey exercises significant influence over the Syrian government.

All this prompted Trump and Erdogan to invite President al-Sharaa, who arrived at the NATO summit and met with them, and where signs of discomfort, even tension, were visible on his face during their bilateral meetings.

Reports at the time noted US pressure on al-Sharaa to play an active and timely role in US plans for Lebanon. Otherwise, Washington would reconsider its relations with Syria, which would not have received any international recognition without direct US support.

Analysts also highlighted U.S.-Turkish coordination regarding regional developments, particularly in Lebanon and then Iraq, clarifying Trump’s efforts to finalize his regional project, which to some extent relies primarily on Erdogan’s support.

Trump has repeatedly praised Erdogan, emphasizing that the Turkish president carries out everything America asks of him, and also noted that he and Erdogan brought al-Sharaa to power.

Analysts further predicted that Trump would sort out his regional projects and plans following his talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House. The American president is also expected to welcome Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on July 21 and finally Netanyahu, whom he could invite to the White House before the Israeli elections on October 27.

In Iraq, the United States is exerting strong pressure to dismantle the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), whose factions seek Iraqi sovereignty in the face of American interference in internal affairs. In Lebanon, the government is under pressure to disarm Hezbollah, the Lebanese nation’s sole source of power.

These meetings, along with the results of Erdogan’s talks with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Istanbul on July 10 and Trump’s phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on July 11, are expected to chart the trajectory of America’s next phase in the region.

At the same time, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin concluded his tour of Iraq, meeting with various Iraqi factions amid discussions about a new, broader role for Turkey in Iraq, alongside cooperation with Washington. The United States assigned this task to its ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, alongside his roles in Syria, Iraq and, indirectly, Lebanon.

All of this helps explain Trump’s remarks during his meeting with Ahmad al-Sharaa about his “absolute commitment to defending Israel”, as well as his recognition of al-Quds (Jerusalem) as the regime’s capital, as well as the recognition of the occupied Syrian Golan Heights as Zionist territory, without any objection from al-Sharaa.

The self-proclaimed Syrian president seems to hope that Saudi Arabia and Turkey will help him resist the pressure, or rather the openly declared and brazen American threats in front of the media.

After al-Sharaa returned from the NATO summit, his government claimed to have confiscated weapons intended for Hezbollah. No evidence has been presented to support the allegations.

Hezbollah’s media relations office has once again denied allegations that the Lebanese resistance is carrying out activities on Syrian territory, stressing that these allegations and accusations “are nothing more than fabricated stories without any factual basis.”

In a statement, Hezbollah stressed that these allegations “resurface from time to time with the aim of discrediting Hezbollah, while serving the Zionist-American project in the region.”

He pointed out that Hezbollah has categorically and repeatedly denied these allegations in the past, saying they are completely false and baseless.

Al-Sharaa appears to be making these public accusations to keep Trump on his side and demonstrate that he is advancing the US president’s current and future agenda. These efforts aim to redraw the geopolitical map of the region once the course of U.S.-Iran relations is determined, as well as the resulting implications for Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and the region as a whole.

It also helps explain Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s comments in an Emirati newspaper on July 11, in which he ruled out any armed confrontation with the Israeli regime and accused Tehran of having “proxies” destabilizing regional security “just like the Israelis.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei responded: “It is astonishing that someone like Mr. Fidan would make such an incorrect comparison. He himself knows that the Zionist regime is inherently expansionist and seeks to undermine the entire region, including Turkey. We wonder how he arrived at such a strange comparison.” Baghaei added: “Iran has no proxies in the region. The only proxies in the region is the Zionist regime.”

Iran certainly has allies, but Fidan’s remarks lend weight to analysis suggesting a potential shift in Turkey’s regional policies, aligning them more closely with the U.S. agenda in coordination with the governments in Riyadh, Damascus, Baghdad and Beirut.

Experts say Trump wants these parties to finalize their decisions in favor of his plans before the end of the month, which would potentially allow him to achieve further military and political victories, as well as economic gains, before the US midterm elections in November. These elections are expected to be crucial, as the loss of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate could have significant political and personal consequences for him.

With renewed US aggression against Iran and the Saudi bombing of Sanaa International Airport, it has become clear that some actors in the region have failed to learn the lessons of everything they have experienced over the past three years.

The genocide in Gaza, the aggression against Lebanon and then against Iran, and before that the fall of the Syrian government, all of this took place within the framework of a regional and international agenda which ultimately only served the interests of the Israeli regime.

The regime sought to achieve its objectives in Lebanon and, through it, throughout the region. These efforts were thwarted by the tough stance of Iranian negotiators during the Islamabad talks, which blocked the plans of those coordinating with Tel Aviv in Lebanon. However, these efforts continue within the framework of the US-Lebanese-Israeli “framework agreement”.

Trump’s agenda would exploit the religious, sectarian and political divisions of Lebanon and Iraq, seeking to deepen these fractures in pursuit of what he blindly views as a decisive blow against Iran following its recent diplomatic, political and military gains.

What Washington does not understand is that Tehran has never asked its allies in Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen to act militarily on its behalf. These countries all have their own deep-seated grievances with the United States and the Zionist regime, an issue lost in the region’s geopolitical landscape.