Politics
Trump should demand major concessions from Erdogan on F-35
On July 17, 2019, the United States excluded Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, five days after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received the Russian-made S-400 air defense system he had purchased. President Donald Trump may admire Erdogan, but he had no choice. The 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act applied sanctions that Trump did not have the authority to waive on those doing business with Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Seven years later, Trump appears determined to resume the sale of F-35s to Turkey. He called Turkey a “faithful” ally. “We don’t want to sanction our friends,” he said. Erdogan, meanwhile, appears determined to unload the S-400s to circumvent CAATSA. The latest rumor suggests that Turkey will sell the S-400s to the UAE. Circumventing CAATSA does not justify the sale of the F-35 to Turkey. Turkey’s defense industry reverse engineers U.S. technology, and Erdogan has repeatedly supported terrorist groups such as Hamas. Turkey’s recent deployment of F-16s to occupied northern Cyprus shows that Erdogan will not respect end-use agreements. Turkey’s supporters may say the country needs F-35s to counter Russia, but the reality is that Turkey is far more likely to use stealth jets to attack Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Armenia or eastern Libya.
Trump has been a dealmaker his whole life. He made hundreds of millions of dollars by understanding what he could charge when the buyer seemed desperate. And Erdogan’s single-minded desire to acquire the high-end F-35 reflects Turkey’s desperation as other regional states maintain their qualitative military edge over Turkey.
The question then is why Trump, who also wants a Nobel Peace Prize, does not condition the sale on other concessions? For starters, there is Cyprus. July 20 marked the 52nd anniversary of Turkey’s invasion of the island. Turkey has since ethnically cleansed a third of the island and transported tens of thousands of settlers to northern Cyprus. The Turkish occupation is becoming a U.S. national security concern for two reasons. First, casinos and universities in occupied areas are known to be money laundering centers for terrorist groups and Russian oligarchs, and second, Turkey’s creation of a state recognized by none other than itself sets a precedent that Russian President Vladimir Putin has since used in separating the territories of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. If Turkey wants the F-35, Trump should first demand that it completely withdraw from Cyprus.
There is no reason for the United States to arm a country that hosts U.S.-designated terrorist groups. If Turkey wants the F-35s, Trump should demand that it not only designate Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist groups, but also arrest and extradite Hamas leaders to Turkish territory.
Trump called the Turkish dictator “tough guy,” “a hell of a leader” and explained that “strength is why Erdoğan leads a good and successful country.” The stability of dictatorships is, however, illusory. Erdogan is getting older and has experienced several health crises. Trump may be selling the F-35 to a country that could descend into civil war or bankruptcy after Erdogan’s death. Democracies with strong rule of law tend to manage the transition better. Trump is expected to use his influence to demand the release of political prisoners like Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and philanthropist Osman Kevala.
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Many Trump supporters prioritize religious freedom. While President Joe Biden’s team has ignored the massacre of Christians in Nigeria and Biafra as well as the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, Trump has the chance to be different. He could demand the restoration of all Greek Orthodox properties, including the Halki Seminary and Hagia Sophia. Trump should not only demand that Erdogan recognize the Armenian and Pontic Greek genocides, but also lay a wreath at the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Yerevan, Armenia.
Supporters of the F-35 deal point out that it’s not just about a jet. It’s about cementing a relationship that can last decades. They are right. But while this relationship is expected to last decades, Erdogan has much less time. If Erdogan wants the jet, Trump should demonstrate the art of the deal. In doing so, it might just strengthen regional security.
Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, Distinguished Fellow of the Usanas Foundation in India, and contributor to Beltway Confidential.
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Sources 2/ https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/4656377/trump-should-demand-major-concessions-erdogan-f-35/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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