Best tennis bets for Saturday January 11

Today's tennis picks for day 1 of the Australian Open 2025:

The 2025 Australian Open starts on Saturday, January 11 and continues on Sunday, January 12. I've already previewed the men's and women's draws, and I've laid out my future for both. I also went to Gill Alexander's Beating The Book podcast to go through the entire tournament. That streamed live on X and we really enjoyed going back and forth to talk everything through. However, now it's time to take a look at the best daily bets for the tournament. I'll be posting these daily for the next few weeks, so be sure to come back for more tennis content. Oddly enough, I only have one shot at Day 1 of the Australian Open. That won't be the case going forward as I have about 15 opening rounds I'm considering. But I know people want a little more than just one, so I'll also discuss my picks for the men's and women's finals in Adelaide.

I also strongly encourage you to come back to this story before the matches start, or check the picks page regularly. I try to write down as many matches as possible in advance, but that is difficult in an international sport. I occasionally see some interesting line movements and add them to my map a few hours before the matches start. That said, I will be adding choices to the choices page throughout the day, but I will also post them at the bottom of these articles, as I do.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are deploying!

2025 record: 33-26 (+3.07 units)

Jaume Munar vs. Casper Ruud

Ruud has looked pretty sharp since he got back on the field. After a defeat against Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals, the Norwegian took just over a month off. Ruud then recorded comfortable victories over Alexander Shevchenko and Sumit Nagal in World Tennis League exhibition action in December. Ruud also went 2-0 in singles at the United Cup, recording a tough 7-6 (6), 5-7, 6-4 win over Tomas Machac, plus a 7-5, 6-3 victory over Hubert Hurkacz. All in all, Ruud comes into this tournament in good form and I expect him to get a lot of support over the course of 2025. However, I don't see him running through Munar without any problems.

Although Munar is mainly known as a clay court specialist, he scored a number of big victories in Hong Kong last week. It started with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. I looked the other way there, as Davidovich Fokina was a bit of a disaster in 2024. But Munar backed this up with a straight win over Nuno Borges, and he followed that up with a 2-6, 7-6. (4), 7-5 victory over Lorenzo Musetti. That's two top-75 wins, plus a top-20 win.

Munar comes into this event in very solid form, making it hard to imagine Ruud winning in straight sets. Munar may not have the overall weapons needed to upset Ruud, but he has a good base game. So there could easily be a set or two where Ruud is a little off and Munar runs away with it.

Munar has also played Ruud quite well in the past. These guys are different players than they will be in 2022, but the Spaniard actually scored a 6-3, 6-3 win over Ruud in Tokyo that year. That was a closed-roof match, so Munar could cause him problems in fast conditions. So I see it happening again in Melbourne. Ruud tends to start tournaments a bit slowly.

Bet: Over 3.5 sets (-122)

Added plays

Madison KeysML (-118) vs. Jessica Pegula [Adelaide] – I think Keys' chances of lifting a trophy in Adelaide are very good. The 29-year-old will probably take this match a little more seriously than Pegula. After all, Pegula lost in the final of the US Open in 2024. While Keys is certainly thinking about the Australian Open, it's hard to imagine that Pegula doesn't dream of going back to the later rounds of a major to finish her story to make. Moreover, Keys is slightly more dangerous as a server than Pegula. So if she has the ball in her racket, she should give herself a good chance of winning this match. Keys swept the field with Pegula at the 2023 US Open, winning 6-1, 6-3 in just over an hour. These are very similar circumstances.

There's also a little more at stake for Keys in tournaments like this. The American probably wants to get a little closer to the Top 10, so that she can get better draws at majors in the future.

Felix Auger-Aliassime ML (+120) vs. Sebastian Korda [Adelaide] – I feel like the wrong player is being favored in this match. I'm not going to go crazy with my units here because I just don't know what the motivation level is going into the Australian Open. However, I believe Auger-Aliassime is slightly better than Korda. The Canadian has a better serve and his worst tennis is slightly better than Korda's worst tennis. That's the problem with Korda. We all praise the American for being one of the smoothest ball strikers on the ATP Tour, but it's not unusual for him to be completely off the mark. And while Korda looked good all week, he was away for a long time before arriving in Adelaide. That said, there may be a few stinkers in there. And this is definitely the best player Korda has faced at the start of 2025. Auger-Aliassime's confidence should be through the roof after a very impressive win over Tommy Paul. That was one where Auger-Aliassime looked extremely competent in longer rallies. That should serve him well here.

Tennis links

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Tennis odds

Gill Alexander's Beating The Book podcast