Steve Yzerman was an emperor without clothes – Minnesota Wild

Steve Yzerman has let Red Wings fans down in recent months.

Detroit’s rebuild hasn’t been an abject failure, but it’s certainly not on track to produce a championship-caliber roster, even if the Red Wings force Dylan Larkin by denying his trade request.

The Athletics analytical model explains this issue clearly. Detroit is in dire need of offensive talent. They need a franchise striker, a scoring defender, a second-line striker and a middle-six striker.

A ‘franchise’ striker is a huge challenge. That doesn’t always have to be a player of the Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon level. But even players who match this quality – top drivers like Robert Thomas, Jason Robertson, Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel – are virtually impossible to acquire outside the draft. Even if star forward Lucas Raymond makes a leap into that franchise-caliber forward role, the best-case scenario of the Yzer plan, they are missing three key pieces in their forward corps.

Adding three forwards and a scoring defenseman would be a challenge at any time, but it is especially demanding due to the rapidly rising salary cap. Retaining talent is easy, but acquiring talent is not.

Those players may be in Detroit’s system now, but they’ll be on the roster before key players start to decline. Last offseason, The Athletics Scott Wieler identified their most valuable prospects like Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson. With Raymond and Seider reaching their prime, there isn’t much room for further growth from these players. Edvinsson could make meaningful moves, but he is already an important part of their roster in the checklist above.

Reinforcements arrive in the form of Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Trey Augustine, Marco Kasper and Carter Bear. But as Wild fans from the 2010s know, building a competitor around mid-tier prospects is nearly impossible. Think back to the days when Chuck Fletcher was trying to get elite results with Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle and Jason Zucker among the top six forwards. Detroit seems to be headed that way unless they run into a Yahtzee with these prospects.

Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin are 28 and 29 years old, and the best parts of their games are in the offensive zone. Attacking skills and analytical effects are usually the first to falter in players as they reach their 30s, meaning they could be a mid-six or even third-line quality player within two or three years. Additionally, the Red Wings will have to replace 31-year-old Andrew Copp.

The prospects Yzerman added can replace aging talent, but they likely don’t have the ability to improve the roster in the near future. They probably have a run of playoff berths on the way, but that’s a poor showing after a 10-year playoff drought.

I don’t know this for sure, but I believe it’s true: all of this could have been forgiven if Yzerman could have simply admitted defeat when Larkin asked for a reprieve.

With the challenge of acquiring talent in the midst of rising salary cap environment, the Red Wings could make a killing by moving on from Larkin – even after his trade request became public. He is exactly the type of signing that can kick-start a rebuild. In Detroit’s case, trading Larkin could give them back the momentum they need.

The public nature of the trade request reduces Yzerman’s influence in trade talks, but that is offset by the sheer difficulty of acquiring talent this season. New contenders must find ways to add talent, and established contenders must replace aging talent. A top center at 29 years old is perhaps the most in-demand commodity in the NHL.

The blueprint should be clear at this point: offer long-term extensions to the prospects going forward, trade Larkin for something equivalent to three first-round picks, and build a new window a few years down the road.

By the time the salary cap explosion subsides, long-term extensions for young players will be high-value contracts for the core of the roster, allowing Detroit to pursue elite talent in free agency. If that doesn’t work out, they can use the assets acquired in the Larkin trade to build a package that looks a lot like the Quinn Hughes deal.

Instead of patiently reworking the Red Wings core, Yzerman wanted Larkin to stay. He is under contract and will not be paid if he persists. Whether Larkin returns or Yzerman folds and trades him after releasing a Larkin-less roster, the fans lose.

Not only that, but Yzerman’s best-case scenario is that Larkin stays against his will. Is that really the culture he wants to foster? The risk of a toxic locker room is a worst-case scenario, but there is a possible middle ground where the team captain wallows in apathy as his contract expires. That’s not the example every young player should have. It’s a disservice to the prospects Yzerman brought in.

The way I see it, there are only two reasons to force this team to stay together: either Yzerman is too proud to admit defeat, or he was afraid Detroit would cut him before a younger core could reach the ceiling. Both would be understandable, but neither has the best interests of the fans or the team at heart.

Larkin’s trade request should be the verdict on Yzerman’s failed rebuild. Instead, the news from Detroit was that of a dying empire. Yzerman was in a staring contest with his captain. He demanded younger, better and cheaper players in exchange for Larkin. That’s not an offer to trade; that’s a message to the league that no one can mess with Steve Yzerman.

It’s the kind of behavior you would expect from it Gladiators Commodus – a symbol of arrogant decadence, common in the Roman aristocracy.

The emperor has no clothes. Finally, Red Wings ownership has stepped in and said it out loud.