Structure development increases the risk of natural hazards according to a new study from the University of Colorado Boulder

More than half of structures in the United States are at risk from natural hazards — such as floods, earthquakes, and wildfires — according to a new study published in the American Geophysical Union Journal Earth’s Future.

Led by a research team at the University of Colorado Boulder, the study — titled “Risk Development: Increased Vulnerability to Natural Hazards and Exposure to Natural Hazards in the United States” — shows that environmental changes and global warming are factors leading to this increased risk, but are not the only culprits. The way humans develop lands, cities, and towns similarly contributes to this trend.

“Every year we lose billions of dollars, and lives are lost to natural hazards, so we wondered why that happened,” said Virginia Iglesias, a research scientist at CU Boulder Earth Lab and lead author of the research paper. “On the one hand, we know that climate change increases extreme events, but we wondered if losses could also increase because we develop in the wrong areas.”

To assess how development has affected natural hazard hazards, Iglesias and her team compared maps of earthquakes, wildfires, hurricanes, hurricanes and floods to a historical land use dataset drawn from the Zillow Housing and Property Database. The researchers defined “hot spots” as areas in which the probability or intensity of danger exceeded the 90th percentile for the entire United States.

The study concluded that while only 31% of the United States is considered a natural hazard hot spot, 57% of American structures are located in those areas. Within these areas are 1.5 million buildings, all of which are at risk.

The paper reads: “These critical levels of exposure indicate our inability, lack of knowledge, or unwillingness to limit development in dangerous areas.”

Research has revealed that there are two distinct processes that have contributed to the increased risk of natural hazards: intensification and expansion. Intensification is the addition of structures to previously developed lands, and expansion is the addition of structures to previously undeveloped areas.

In areas most likely to experience earthquakes, development over the past several decades has been driven by intensification, while in areas most likely to experience floods, wildfires, or hurricanes, development has been driven by expansion. These developments increase the areas’ risk of natural disasters.

Unfortunately, many of the areas most at risk also have the lowest incomes.

“There is a lot of research showing that natural hazards increase social inequality because people who have less are more likely to start losing more, and take longer to recover,” Iglesias explained.

The paper’s authors hope it will assist city planners and governments with future building initiatives and help prevent this growing social inequality.

“Hopefully we can build better in the future, and we can have new policies to reduce vulnerability,” Iglesias said.

But this is not the end of the team’s research. In the future, the researchers hope to add more to this study by shifting their focus to loss data rather than just exposure. They will analyze the types of structures most vulnerable to natural hazards and provide data to prevent losses.

“If we make this information available to people, it can reduce losses dramatically,” Iglesias said. “Information is the key.”

more information

The full study can be found online at agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001795.

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