Laurie Dingler | Lessons and Questions from Antelope Valley – Times-Standard

The Antelope Valley earthquake (July 8, 2021) centered halfway between Lake Tahoe and Mono Lake and other dropped items from shelves in the central area and caused some landslides, causing no damage or injuries. However, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS), this earthquake is considered “major”.

What caused a major earthquake? The USGS has developed an algorithm that includes volume, damage estimates, and Did you feel it (DYFI) responses. What put the Antelope Valley earthquake over the top were 25,957 perceptible reports, placing it in the top 20 for DYFI responses.

People felt the 8th of July earthquake over a very large area. Most of the DYFI responses were aggregated in the Reno to Bay Area, but a few were felt from San Diego to Seattle and east to Montana, Colorado and New Mexico. The distance award winner was from the small town of Mitchell, Nebraska, 850 miles from the epicenter.

Are these reports credible? The USGS also models the perceptible area based on earthquake location, magnitude, fault characteristics, and regional geology. Their model puts much of western California and Nevada in the felt area but is more limited than actual reports.

Can we trust the voluntary reports of ordinary people? Seismic vibration is a perfect citizen science topic because it requires no training to describe the effects of vibration and vibration. But anyone can log into the USGS DYFI website and enter the information and surely some people may generate reports. Here’s where numbers and pattern matter. It is easy to obscure one report of severe damage in an area where twenty others said the shaking was weak.

What is my opinion of the remote reports about Wadi Antelope? There were more than 100 individual hair reports from areas at least 325 miles from the epicenter. They all reported weak shaking. The number and consistency in what they offer makes me believe most of them. I am convinced that the Antelope Valley earthquake was felt over a very large area.

The earthquake was also an earthquake early warning test. California, Oregon and Washington have implemented a system designed to provide a few seconds of warning before the strongest shaking arrives. The system relies on a dense network of seismographs that detect the first seismic waves a few seconds after a fault begins to rupture. Then the algorithms estimate the epicenter location, magnitude, and felt area in a second or two. Send a quick alert to ShakeAlert participants and people who have downloaded the MyShake app.

To activate general messaging, the earthquake must be a magnitude 5 or greater (4.5 for MyShake) and produce a noticeable shaking where you are. The Antelope Valley earthquake met these criteria, yet few received notification and none were notified before the tremor occurred.

The earthquake revealed several problems in the system. The ShakeAlert system is activated, but not until 25 seconds after the earthquake and long after the vibration has occurred in the central region. Second, the calculated first magnitude was only 4.8, which is much smaller than the actual size.

what happened? Station density and coordination between the California and Nevada networks. To work effectively, ShakeAlert needs seismic stations spaced every ten miles or so. The San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California meet this requirement, but less densely populated areas do not. The University of Nevada and Reno operate the Nevada Network and Nevada is not yet a full EWS partner.

The limited number of stations that picked up the earthquake misinterpreted the signals as three separate earthquakes in the upper range of magnitude 4 rather than a single M6. MyShake subscribers in Mammoth Lakes and Stockton areas received an alert, but because of much weaker shaking than they felt and only after the waves arrived. ShakeAlert is still in the development phase and Antelope Valley has provided an excellent test run. The solution is more seismic stations and better coordination between the California and Nevada networks.

Antelope Valley also provides interesting geological insights. Geologists were not surprised by the earthquake site. The San Andreas system gets much more press attention than other fault systems in the state, but eastern California is also seismically active. I’ve written about California’s Eastern Shear Zone (ECSZ) before (It’s not my fault, May 31, 2020). It is part of the complex plate boundary between North America and the Pacific Ocean, absorbing nearly a quarter of the plate’s movement as its more famous western neighbor.

The Temblor report highlights a mystery. High-precision GPS systems show the movement of the board in real time. Data from the summit of Sierra and Fallon, Nevada, about 80 miles away, shows that the Sierra’s mass is moving a third of an inch per year to the north relative to Nevada. This shear motion creates the shear zone crack. In the long term, one can expect fault slippage in the shear region to match the measured GPS rates.

But they don’t. The specific deformation on the surface faults shows much less slip than might be expected. interpretation? ECSZ makes the San Andreas system look simple. In San Andreas, relatively few directed errors all in the same direction accommodate movement. In eastern California, faults are intermittent, in a variety of directions and slip directions and leave no visible cut-off traces on the Earth’s surface.

It was a great tectonic period for the eastern part of the state, and we were fortunate to have escaped heavy damage. But the upcoming event could be bigger, closer to populated areas, or in our neck of the woods. Antelope Valley is a good reminder to update your emergency supplies and review your plans.

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