AIR Worldwide updates Japanese earthquake and typhoon models

Disaster risk modeling company AIR Worldwide has updated its earthquake and typhoon models for Japan to help provide reinsurers with a more comprehensive view of risks in the region.

AIR’s earthquake model captures the country’s seismicity by generating events along known crustal faults, along and within subduction zones, and within different regions and regions.

The updated model, informed by the HQ Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) is the latest seismic model but with modifications to the time-dependent rupture probability (TDRP) estimates of earthquakes over the Nankai Basin and some crustal faults to better reflect the uncertainties in the HERP 2019 model and TDRP parameters.

Dr Kazuya Fujimura, Vice President and General Manager of Verisk commented: “Ten years ago, the M9.0 megathrust Tohoku earthquake became the most widely used earthquake in history, generating abundant ground motion data, damage notes, and detailed insurance claims data.

“The Tohoku earthquake informed the view of the risks associated with mega earthquakes not only in Japan but also globally, for example, the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand and the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the Caribbean, where, with limited historical data, the Large earthquakes (M9.0 or greater) can be ruled out.”

Dr Bingming Shen-Tu, Vice President of Research, said: “While no model can predict when or whether the next major earthquake will occur in Japan, using the AIR earthquake model for Japan, can help prepare for tsunami losses by providing a detailed view and accurate for tsunami risks in Japan.”

Dr Boyko Dudov, Vice President of Research, added: “In 2018 and 2019, four powerful typhoons struck Japan, incurring a total insured loss of approximately US$30 billion in wind and flood damage.

“As after any severe storm or severe storm season, we have analyzed and reanalyzed a large number of meteorological data, market exposure, and company claims data sets from these historical storms.”

The AIR Typhoon for Japan is a random event-based model that shares a catalog with other AIR-style countries in the region, including mainland China, Southeast Asia, and South Korea.

The Japanese typhoon model captures the effects of tropical storms, typhoon winds, precipitation floods, and storm surges on insured properties in Japan.

Wind intensity calculations are based on storm intensity, size, location, forward speed, and direction, as well as basic terrain and land use in the area.

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