PhD position in Groningen earthquake magnitude limitation using 3D multi-physics modeling, data-driven modeling (4 years)

Research Category / Academic

Location Utrecht

The Department of Geosciences is now looking for a highly motivated and high potential applicant for a PhD position to constrain the maximum earthquake magnitude in Groningen using data-driven multi-physics 3D models (4 years).

The seismic hazard from induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field (Netherlands) is largely determined by the maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax) and probability of occurrence scenarios. Thus Mmax is critical for political decision-making and risk perception by society. Current Mmax estimates are determined using extrapolation from observed small earthquakes using event-based statistics and expert judgment. So the physical basis is largely missing. Such a physical component is always challenging to include in any Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) due to the very high demands on computational costs. In particular, the challenge in Groningen is to include the main physical processes on a particularly complex network of many curvilinear and intersecting faults. The doctoral candidate will use recent developments in several computational communities to advance the physics-based PSHA and provide physics-based estimates of Mmax at Groningen.

The PhD candidate will develop a 3D framework for data-driven multi-physics by connecting two existing state-of-the-art methods and adding a new third quasi-analytical model that will be further developed. First, the probabilistic error stresses will be provided by a semi-analytical reservoir simulator MACRIS1. These fault stresses will take into account the optimized Groningen fault geometries and the production history of the field. Then, the pre-earthquake fault stresses, along with the friction parameters derived in the lab in Utrecht on the Groningen rocks, will be exported to a 3D dynamic seismic rupture simulation supported by high-performance computing in SeisSol 2,3,4,5 Third, this dynamic simulation will run On the validation and extension of a semi-analytic model based on the theory of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) for straight faults6 to complex fault geometry. This theory allows for a rapid and probabilistic evaluation of the likelihood of different Mmax scenarios across the domain, taking into account key uncertainties. The aim is for the results of this PhD project to be included in the Groningen Risk Assessment Framework located at the Geological Survey of the Netherlands (TNO). In the future, this new physical framework may also be of great value in determining the seismic hazards of induced and natural earthquakes in the Netherlands and throughout the world. Thus this could make an important contribution to allowing safe and sustainable use under the surface to facilitate our society’s transition to sustainable energy. The project can thus serve as a stepping stone for a career in basic earthquake physics or various socially and economically relevant industries.

This project is part of DeepNL, a long-term Dutch research program to better understand how the Earth’s depths behave under the influence of human interventions, for example in the gas reservoir in the province of Groningen (Netherlands), which aims to develop a knowledge base for geothermal energy extraction and CO2 storage. Underground carbon and hydrogen. The research team includes project lead Dr Yelona van Denther (UU), Professor Dr Jan Diederik van Weiss (TNO, UU), Dr Alice Gabriel (LMU Munich), Professor Dr Jean-Paul Ambro (GEOAZUR), Dr Thibaut Candela (TNO) and Dr. Loes Buijze (TNO) and Prof. Dr. Liviu Matenco (UU). Among the collaborators appointed to the project are Dr. Thomas Ulrich (LMU Munich) and Dr. Huihui Weng (GEOAZUR). The research will be conducted primarily at Utrecht University, but long stays at partner institutes in Germany and France are included in the project planning.

Up to 10% of the candidate’s time will be devoted to assisting with Bachelor’s and Master’s taught programs in the Department of Earth Sciences. A personal training programme, mutually agreed upon on employment, will be created that will reflect the candidate’s training needs and career goals.

references

J.-D. Van Weiss et al. (2019). Three-dimensional mechanical analysis of complex reservoirs: a new network-free method. Geophysics. J. Int., 219 (2), https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz352 C.Pelties et al. (2012). 3D dynamic rupture simulation using the high-order non-continuous Galerkin method on unstructured tetrahedral networks. JGR: Solid Earth, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008857 C. Uphoff et al. (2017). An extreme-scale multi-physics simulation of the Great Sumatra earthquake of 2004. SC’17 Proceedings, Article 21, https://doi.org/10.1145/3126908.3126948 T. Ulrich et al. (2019). Physics-based dual modeling reveals that earthquake displacements are essential for the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi tsunami. Pure and Ab. Geoffs, 176, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02290-5 Ai van Zelst et al. (2019). Modeling mega-earthquakes across scales: a unidirectional coupling from geodynamics and seismic cycles to dynamic rupture. JGR: Solid Earth, 124, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017539 H. Weng & JP Ampuero (2019). Dynamics of prolonged earthquake rupture. JGR: Solid Earth, 124, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017684

work hours:

36 – 40 hours per week

Tabuk:

Cathedral Square 29

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