Birmingham-Erdington by-election: Labor survives four storms and earthquake – but there’s a small tremor from the left | politics news

In an interview with Sky News shortly before the result of the Birmingham-Erington by-election was announced, Labor MP Steve McCabe blamed the low turnout of just 27% for four storms and even an earthquake that shook the city during the campaign.

But when the outcome came, there was no political earthquake, and Labor’s Bullitt Hamilton held the Labor seat and party share of Jacques Drome from 2010 until his untimely death of a heart attack in January.

Labor’s share of the vote rises

Its 3,266 majority was only slightly down from Drome’s 3,601 winning margin in December 2019, but Labor’s share of the vote rose from 50% to 55%. The Conservative Party’s share of the vote fell from 40% to 36%.

Photo: Labor won the Birmingham-Erdington by-election fairly comfortably

So there was no noticeable development in Ukraine for Boris Johnson. Speaking to Sky News after her victory, Ms Hamilton said people in the constituency were afraid of what was happening in Ukraine, but she didn’t think it affected how people vote.

The conventional wisdom in politics is that domestic crises and international emergencies such as wars usually benefit the incumbent prime minister at the ballot box, given her constant exposure on television and the opportunity to play the role of global statesman. Think 1982-1983, Margaret Thatcher, and the Falklands War.

A little less than a year ago, at a key point in the coronavirus crisis, Johnson appeared to have benefited from the “vaccine bounce”, credited with helping him achieve a stunning victory in the Hartlepool by-election, in the depths of the former Labor Party’s “red wall” territory. .

In the same Sky News interview here, Birmingham Northfield Conservative MP Gary Sambrook, who ran the Conservative by-election campaign, almost conceded defeat, arguing that his party had not won Errington since before his grandparents were born.

He claimed that the ruling parties did not win the by-elections from their opponents. Well, as a rule they do not. But in addition to the Hartlepool victory, the Conservative Party won Copeland from the Labor Party in 2017.

The old left is not dead

For Labour, during the Ukraine crisis, Sir Keir Starmer conveyed the message that his party had changed from Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership and is now resolutely the party of NATO. However, Sir Keir is not Ernest Bevin, the charismatic post-war Labor Secretary of State.

Photo: Diane Abbott and John McDonnell criticize NATO expansion

But the Labor leader even threatened to take the whip from leading leftists like John McDonnell and Diane Abbott if they attended a Stop the War rally earlier this week.

Labor may have avoided by-election disaster, but one more stipulation for this by-election is that the old left is not dead. He neither sleeps nor rests, if he misquotes the famous Monty Python parrot drawing.

In a performance that would delight all seasoned left-wing comrades and Starmer critics, former hardline MP Dave Nelist, who stands here in the Unionist and Socialist Alliance, came third, ahead of the UK’s Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform.

Again, it’s clearly not an earthquake. But a small jolt from the left as Sir Keir breathes a sigh of relief this morning because his Labor party has weathered real storms and some concerns about possible Ukrainian support for the prime minister – and in the end, he won here fairly comfortably.

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