Trembling after tremors – Hindus

Since May 15, the National Seismology Center has recorded seven small earthquakes, ranging from 1.8 to 4.5 on the Richter scale, with its center in Faridabad, Rohtak and New Delhi. A wave of tremors – the most recent of which occurred last Wednesday (3 June) – has sparked speculation about the possibility of a larger earthquake in this region.

Experts have denied the validity of this theory, but warn that the region – located near the “most active fault line on Earth” – would be at risk in the event of an “great” earthquake at the level of the Himalayas.

A misinterpreted threat

“There is constant seismic activity that occurs in NCR and could lead to a major earthquake in Delhi,” Kalachand Sen, director of the Wadia Institute for Himalayan Geology, was recently quoted in a news article. But he told the Hindus that his words were misinterpreted. In fact, he explained that he meant exactly the opposite, and the recent earthquakes were a sign that “the region is unlikely to have a larger earthquake.”

Dr. Seine explained that the earthquakes in this region are due to the accumulated “pressure” from the Indian tectonic plate movement and its collision with the Eurasian tectonic plate. As a result, he added, the latest tremors had spread accumulated stress, reducing the risk of a more serious earthquake.

Venet Gahlout, the former director of the National Seismology Center, dismissed the concerns of the devastating earthquake. “There is something called the level of background earthquakes, which continues through a region over time and this is normal for him. Such tremors have occurred in this region since the past 40-50 years. This will not be a cause for concern unless it occurs in areas where tectonic plates meet.

Kusala Rajendran from the Center for Earth Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore explained that only bigger errors and larger systems cause bigger earthquakes. This is why you only have large earthquakes along the plate boundaries, such as the Sumatra plate boundary [near Indonesia]”The boundaries of the Andaman Plate or the Himalayas and California,” she said, emphasizing that Delhi has a history of only minor tremors.

Not without risks

However, concerns about the risk of a major earthquake in Delhi may not be unfounded. Citing an example of a 1993 earthquake in Latur, Maharashtra, Dr. Rajendran said: “An earthquake measuring 5.5 to 6 cannot be ruled out anywhere.” At the time, the region was within Zone 1 of the maps of the seismic areas of the country, which was the least dangerous category. With a magnitude of 6.2 on the Richter scale, the earthquake left thousands dead. She said the same thing cannot be excluded here.

Dr. Rajendran said, “Although there are pockets of local earthquakes in Delhi, they are not new … As a seismologist who has been working on earthquakes for a long time, my feeling is that the real fear for Delhi is from the Himalayas.” Adding that it is very close to the most active fault line in the world.

Many researchers have assumed the possibility of a major earthquake, something 8 and above that hits the Himalayas.

Based on historical, archaeological and geological data, Dr. Rajendran said that such an event had not occurred in the region for at least 1,000 years. Others have linked it at 500 years. This, along with GPS-based modeling of Indian plate speed, indicates that the earthquake is coming, adding: “This means it can happen at any time.”

Influence on Delhi

“Even a strong earthquake in the Himalayas [as experienced in the recent past] “It may pose a threat to Delhi-NCR,” said Dr. Seine. This was based on the fact that this region is only 150 kilometers away from the active Himalayan earthquake belt. Also, “the thickness of large sediments (soft soil) in the alluvial plains of Ganga” north of Delhi tends to amplify the effect of earthquakes. He said that given the presence of tall buildings in the area, a large number of buildings and a large population, it is necessary to strictly enforce building codes as a precaution.

Dr. Rajendran referred to an earthquake in the Shamuli area of ​​Uttarakhand in March 1999, measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale, which caused damage to some buildings in Patbarang in Delhi, 280 km from the epicenter. It has also raised concerns about the weakness of buildings in Delhi-NCR and whether authorities have taken steps to make them safe.

Dr. said Gallahut, drawing parallels with an earthquake in 1803 near Jarwalwal in Uttarakhand that apparently led to the downfall of the Minar magnate minaret in Delhi, we need to worry about the consequences of the Himalayas earthquake on cities like Delhi, Kanpur, Lucknow, Banaras and others in Indian Ganges Plains. He believed that NCR would not be able to withstand such an earthquake, given the unplanned way in which buildings are constructed.

However, there is no definitive answer to the time of a massive earthquake. Dr. Rajendran said: “At any time.” The first paper saying that an earthquake could happen in the Himalayas appeared in 1981. “It has already been 30 years,” she said. Thus, while some speculation is unfounded, Delhi-NCR is not entirely prone to earthquakes either.

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