EU put on earthquake alert: Three countries at high risk of disaster at any moment | science | News

Europe is hit by millions of earthquakes every year – although the majority are too small to be felt, let alone pose a threat to life or infrastructure. However, according to the European Institutions for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EFEHR), the largest earthquakes to hit Europe in the 20th century alone have caused more than 200,000 deaths and more than €250 billion (£210 billion) in financial losses. While earthquakes cannot at present be prevented or predicted accurately, hazard and risk models can assist in the development of mitigation measures to reduce their impact when they occur.

To this end, researchers from EFEHR today released new assessments of earthquakes in Europe – including an updated earthquake hazard model and a first hazard model.

In this setting, hazard refers to the likelihood of future earthquakes, calculated based on knowledge about past earthquakes and local geological conditions.

At the same time, the risks take into account the estimated economic and human consequences of these potential earthquakes – and include factors such as population density, local social conditions and the exposure of the built environment to seismic activity.

In Europe, buildings in active seismic zones must be built or modified to meet the so-called Eurocode 8 standard, which aims to protect human lives, reduce damage and ensure critical civilian infrastructures can continue to function.

EFEHR said: “The development of these models was a joint effort of seismologists, geologists and engineers across Europe.

They explained that the pioneering support came from members of the Swiss Seismological Service and the Seismology and Geodynamics group at ETH Zurich.

“All the core data sets have been updated and aligned – a complex task given the huge amount of data and the highly diverse tectonic settings in Europe.”

Together, they added, the models will “improve understanding of where the strong shaking is likely to occur and the effects that future earthquakes will have in Europe.”

Read more: Turkey earthquake discovery sparks call for new risk assessments

Compared with the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, advanced data sets used in the revised risk assessment resulted in lower estimates of potential seismic activity across “most of Europe”.

The exception, according to EFEHR, lies in “some regions in western Turkey, Greece, Albania, Romania, southern Spain and southern Portugal, where higher ground shaking patterns are observed.”

The updated model also confirmed that the European countries with the highest earthquake risk are Turkey, Greece, Albania, Italy and Romania – followed by other Balkan countries.

But experts cautioned, “Even in regions with low or medium ground shaking estimates, destructive earthquakes can occur at any time.”

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On the risk front, the researchers reported that the drivers were, of course, areas with high seismic activity but also older, more vulnerable buildings, and densely populated urban areas.

The researchers said: “Although most European countries have modern design laws and standards in place that ensure adequate protection against earthquakes, many old buildings that are unsupported or inadequately reinforced still exist, posing a significant risk to their residents.

The highest earthquake risks are accumulated in urban areas, such as the cities of Istanbul and Izmir in Turkey, Catania and Naples in Italy, Bucharest in Romania, and Athens in Greece, many of which have a history of devastating earthquakes.

“In fact, these four countries alone suffer nearly 80 percent of the typical annual average economic loss of €7 billion due to earthquakes in Europe.”

However, EFEHR noted that cities such as Zagreb (Croatia), Tirana (Albania), Sofia (Bulgaria), Lisbon (Portugal), Brussels (Belgium), and Basel (Switzerland) have a higher than average level of earthquake risk.

London was among the cities least exposed to seismic hazards, along with Berlin and Paris.

The assessments were funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

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