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That growl out loud? This is just the market




I think we all have an answer to what happens when feelings get so stretched as they happened this week. It was usual for the market to be overbought, sentiments would be somewhat extreme and the market would correct and would do so gently. The normal withdrawal that took place over days will be enough to make the charts retract and define patterns.

But now we have become so radical that when the correction comes, it is not just a rug pull, it is an earthquake. Let us examine the sales process.

The first thing worth noting so nobody made a noise: the S&P 500 was its first three-day losing streak since late February. This is a change in pattern. Next is the breadth of supply was the worst since the March drop: 98% of volume was on the downside on the New York Stock Exchange. This is often considered short term extremism, enough to trigger a short term rush again.

Then there was a rise in volatility. Just a few days ago, people were praising that the Volatility Index was 25. Okay now it is 40. Even if it retracts from here there should be another higher bid. This is how the mode tends to play.

Then there is the fact that the volume in QQQs was the highest in a month. The QQQs are now at or near the boarding line.

Lest I forget that the S&P 200-day moving average sits here at so many 3000. These are all reasons why we are seeing a bounce on either Friday or Monday.

But S&P left an island above its head (black box). If you cannot close this gap at 3200 then this is negative. You can see the island you left in early April (green square).

Then there is the show. I shouldn’t tell you how bad it was because it was the worst we’ve seen since March. It was enough to make the McClellan Gathering Index stop rising. As I explained earlier this week, in order to see a real deterioration, we’ll need to see the indicators progressing up and widening enough lag to make this indicator roll, showing failed pools (degradation) below it.

There is also a question of feelings. In mid-May, the last time we had a problem in the market (and the last time the volume of QQQs was very high, the sell / call ratio fell to 117%. Thursday it fell across the triple number line to 101%. After the uptrend What we’ve seen recently, I’d like to call that a lukewarm morale change.

But I would also like to point out that the 30-day moving average of the bid / buy ratio for stocks was much higher in mid-May, unlike now, which is back in February. The 10 day moving average did not move. Maybe that means we’re going to have more volatility and maybe we’ll see some deterioration below if we get the snapback height. On Thursday, I saw the surplus.

Note: Meisler will be on vacation for the next week. Its next column will be on Monday, June 22nd.

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