We should have a discussion about seismic risk management

Jericho Rock Archer / Stuff

The Ministry of Education closed its headquarters for being considered earthquake risk.

Dr. David Hopkins is a consulting engineer specializing in seismic risk management. He is a former MBIE/DBH Consultant in Structural and Earthquake Engineering Matters.

Opinion: Wellington Public Library, Frank Keats Park Market, Carillon, Astron Center, University of Otago Building in Newtown. They are all closed because they are considered earthquake-prone. Recently the Ministry of Education building was evacuated – urgently.

Reasonable caution or hysteria, asks Nikki MacDonald in her thought-provoking article on June 4.

Determining reasonable caution is the main challenge in the earthquake context. Large earthquakes are low-probability events with catastrophic consequences. How do we balance the real costs of reducing or avoiding risks against the potential benefits – which may lie many years into the future?

New Zealand has had legislation on earthquake-prone buildings (EPBs) since 1972 – initially for brick buildings only. In Wellington, 500 of the 700 buildings were either strengthened or demolished in the ensuing thirty years.

Read more: * Wellington cable cars and stadium struggle with rising insurance * Up to 150 Wellington buildings may be involved in building defects considered earthquake risk * Hutt Hospital main building declared earthquake-prone * ‘Getting shrugs’: Pay to fix Christchurch area Earthquake-prone No. 650 Buildings

The 2004 Building Act extended what could be susceptible to earthquakes to all buildings except for small apartment buildings. Buildings that may exceed their final (calculated) capacity in a moderate earthquake (33% of new building design density) and are likely to collapse (in a moderate earthquake) are classified as EPBs. If a building cannot meet this low standard, it is plausible that there should be legislation requiring owners to act – within realistic time frames.

This implicit definition of reasonable caution works well. Regional authorities across the country have embraced the challenges of recognizing earthquake hazards and establishing policies and timeframes for reinforcement – within the requirements of the 2004 law.

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The 17-story Asteron Center opened in 2010 but is now undergoing major earthquake remediation work.

The Canterbury earthquakes, and later the Kaikoura earthquakes, changed things. Taken together, several factors have radically changed the settings used to classify EPBs:

EPB Definition: The 2017 amendment to the Building Code changed the definition of earthquake-prone in a major way. An earthquake-prone building is no longer likely to collapse in a moderate seismic shake (33%). An earthquake-prone classification is now based entirely on calculations of its ultimate strength – without regard to its avalanche-resistance capacity.

Engineering Calculations: The final calculated capacity of a structural element depends on the lowest possible strength of its material. This means that the actual final capacity is likely to be much higher than the calculated value.

Structural engineering calculations ignore unreliable aspects – such as friction and tension in concrete, 3D effects, and the positive contribution of “non-structural” elements.

Thus, there is usually a large margin between the calculated final capacity and the collapse of the building or part of it.

Litigants and Risk Aversion:

The authorities in charge of buildings (owners, managers, regional authorities) are becoming more risk averse. Recent earthquakes have highlighted their responsibilities and obligations. If a building is classified as earthquake prone, decision makers will see no choice but to take immediate action.

Structural engineers have enormous responsibilities and are fully aware of their responsibilities in classifying earthquake-prone buildings. Consultants must be careful when classifying a building. Code developers must be careful in setting evaluation criteria.

In summary, many more buildings have been classified as EPBs than the 2004 legislation. The EPB goalposts have changed significantly. Were the goal posts in the right place before? Are they in the right place now? How can we say? who decides?

Earthquake risk management is a very challenging topic in which the whole community must be actively involved. The government should take the lead in bringing stakeholder groups together in a forum to discuss the current e-Board settings.

There is no easy answer, but discussion and dialogue among all stakeholder groups affected by decisions about building performance will certainly help. There is a need for a better understanding of risks and outcomes across all categories.

Engineers should be aware that their evaluation rules and reports play an important role in determining what an EPB is.

Legislators need to review current findings and evaluation settings that engineers use.

Authorities, owners, and users should challenge engineers to provide more information about the potential consequences of overflowing the final capacity, particularly the possibility of all or part of the building collapsing.

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David Hopkins: “Seismic Classification Scheme for New Zealand Buildings Recommended by the Royal Canterbury Commission on Earthquakes.”

The aim of the Forum is to collectively determine the level of caution required to balance current pain (consequences of required mitigation measures) and potential gains (reduced mortality, damage and disruption in the event of a major earthquake) – in the context of other risks to society.

To start the discussion, the Stakeholder Group Forum could consider:

Going back to the 2004 definition of the term “seismic prone,” which requires EPBs to be those most likely to collapse in a moderate earthquake.

Restore the independence of regional authorities to decide on timeframes within national guidelines. One size does not fit all and there is value in having broader community participation across the country.

Earthquake Classification Scheme: The Royal Canterbury Commission on Earthquakes has recommended an earthquake classification scheme for New Zealand buildings. Having such a scheme would:

Help build and promote a much broader awareness and understanding of earthquake risks across the entire community.

Put earthquake risk first in real estate transactions – put a value on good earthquake performance.

Owners mentioned that they can build higher rating buildings beyond the code minimums and get better value.

Over time, improved awareness of all stakeholders will lead to more informed decisions about earthquake risk mitigation.

To see what an earthquake classification chart for New Zealand buildings might look like, see https://quakestar.org.nz/quakestar/

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