State report says earthquake will trigger 20-foot tsunami in Seattle within 3 minutes

By Nicholas Turner, The Seattle Times

Updated: 1 hour ago Posted: 1 hour ago

Waterfront in Seattle. (Irene Kirkland)

SEATTLE — A tsunami triggered by a major earthquake under Puget Sound will reach the shores of Seattle sooner and reach further inland than previously understood, according to a study published Thursday by the Washington Department of Natural Resources.

Models showed that a tsunami after a 7.5-magnitude earthquake would submerge the coast of Seattle under more than 20 feet of water, and reach parts of Bainbridge Island, Elliott Bay and Alki Point within three minutes.

The waves can reach a staggering 42 feet high at the Seattle Great Wheel and reach Lumen Field and T-Mobile Park.

“Three to five minutes is all that separates the seismic event and the arrival of the tsunami,” Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz said Thursday during a press conference on the seafront in Seattle. “And that’s why we’re doing this research now so everyone is aware of it, so our local state government is aware of it, and we can start preparing, planning and taking all the necessary precautions.”

The new study used more recent topography and elevation data, covering a larger area, than previous studies of the Seattle, Tacoma and Everett regions published in 2003, 2009 and 2014, respectively.

While Tacoma is expected to see less inundation than previous studies, the new report said waves could travel inland.

The study showed that waters along parts of the northeast coast of Harbor Island can rise 15 feet, while waves can reach half a mile inland from Smith Cove to Sudo, and closer to a mile near the port of Tacoma.

North of the Deception Pass, the waves get smaller, to a projected average height of five feet.

Franz urged residents to learn more about the dangers facing their area, sign up for earthquake and tsunami warnings, and prepare an emergency kit containing at least two weeks of water, food and other necessities — and do it all now, before it’s due. Too late.

“We won’t be able to eliminate all the risks from earthquakes and tsunamis, but we can take this new paradigm to help us make plans that will ensure our resilience when this happens,” she said.

In the study, researchers from the Washington Department of Geological Survey used forecasts made after the last major earthquake under the Seattle Fault — a magnitude 7.5 on the Richter scale that occurred about 11,000 years ago — to estimate the length, time of arrival and internal arrival of a subsequent tsunami if, or when, the disaster repeats itself.

Research shows that the fault has triggered smaller earthquakes, mostly magnitude 6.5, five times in the past 3,500 years.

The earthquake that occurred 11,000 years ago is likely the largest in the past 16,000 years.

While it’s possible that future earthquakes will be smaller than designed, the forecast is still “appalling,” said Alex Dolcimascolo of the Geological Survey, the report’s author. “We really wanted to emphasize this scenario so that people can prepare.”

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