Can animals predict vibration?

San Diego – We’re sure your pets are wonderful, talented creatures; We will never take this from you.

But no, experts say, Fido and Flavi cannot predict earthquakes.

At least, “that’s not what we understand,” adds Sue Hogg, a USGS seismologist. “Because there is a lot we don’t understand about earthquakes.”

In a phone interview this week, Hogg told FOX5SanDi Wego she’s apparently no stranger to seemingly compelling anecdotes about animals “sensing” large earthquakes before they strike. These stories go back to Greece in 373 B.C., when historians say that “rats, seaweeds, snakes, and centipedes left their homes and headed to safety several days before a devastating earthquake.”

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But while “anecdotal evidence” abounds, researchers have not extensively documented consistent and reliable behavior of animals that prove they predict earthquakes. Scientists aren’t even sure how this works.

So how did this idea become so popular? Some factors play a role, Hogg said, including a form of “selection bias” that leads people to draw conclusions from the data that work for them. After an earthquake, people discard other information in favor of experience that supports their intuition.

Hogg gave an example: After an earthquake, a number of people look back and say their cat behaved strangely the night before for no apparent reason.

“The problem is that if you own a cat, you know that they often act strangely for no apparent reason,” said the seismologist. So, of course, before the earthquake: “Some cats were behaving strangely for no apparent reason.”

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But other factors driving this perception stand on more stable scientific ground.

While the creatures – as far as we know – do not sense earthquakes before they begin, they are more sensitive to smaller vibrations deep in the Earth’s crust.

Hogg said that an earthquake of less than a magnitude 3 would not likely have been recorded by a person sitting at the kitchen table, but “a horse on four legs or a rabbit close to the ground” might be felt. About half of the major earthquakes in California come with shockwaves, according to a seismologist, so your pet may feel some slight vibrations before the main event.

But Hogg said that’s different from the prediction. Animals don’t sense something before it’s there, they simply experience something in real time that you can’t feel.

This is not innate in their animal nature: Hogg reported a case in which a chair leaned against a wall to the floor shortly before a major earthquake. The chair did not foresee the earthquake and turned over in fear – it knocked on an omen that the people in the room could not perceive.

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It’s not just our pets that lack earthquake clairvoyance.

Neither the USGS nor any other scientists predicted a major earthquake. We don’t know how, nor do we expect to know how anytime in the foreseeable future,” the agency’s website frankly states.

“Earthquakes can be basically unpredictable,” Hogg said. “It’s not like the weather. You can see the brewing of weather patterns. Whatever’s going on in the crust…we can’t really observe it directly.”

But scientists are not completely in the dark.

California’s earthquake warning system, the first of its kind in the state, could give people an early warning system a few seconds before a major shaking occurs. That’s just enough time to “fall, cover, and stick,” potentially saving people from serious injury or death.

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Scientists tuned the system to alert residents with a power of 4.5 or higher.

Hogg explained that similar to animals (or chairs) experiencing earthquakes, the system does not predict anything that has not already started. Instead, highly sensitive devices detect the fastest-moving waves from a ruptured fault, and alert residents before they begin to vibrate at the surface.

The California Office of Emergency Services has a more detailed explanation if you’re curious.

An early warning system is your best bet before the next big earthquake strikes. Android phones come with the technology built in, while iPhone users can download MyShake here.

Keep an eye on the app, but you don’t need to take cover the next time your pet is behaving strangely. Maybe that’s just what they are.

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