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Santa Rosa could see 7.1 earthquake on Rodgers Creek Fault
The Rodgers Creek Fault that cuts through the heart of Sonoma County and caused a 4.4-magnitude earthquake and a 4.3 aftermath Tuesday quake is one of four major faults in the Bay Area equipped with enough pent-up energy to trigger a major earthquake — and it’s overdue. Significant, according to a 2016 study.
The scientists reached their conclusions after researching historical data and making extensive measurements of “fault creep” through the ground cracks that define the 44-mile-wide San Andreas Fault System.
Fault creep is slippage in the upper part of the Earth’s crust along a fault line. Stress is released in the Earth’s crust with this gradual creep, which reduces the stress and potential energy of a given fault.
(From 2016: new maps detailing the wider Rodgers Creek Fault across Santa Rosa)
But Rodgers Creek is considered “closed” because it didn’t have any measurable creep, so it’s likely “eventful,” said geophysicist James Linkamper of the USGS, lead author of the 2016 study co-produced with researchers from San Francisco. State University.
Researchers estimate that Rodgers Creek, which stretches from San Pablo Bay to the northern suburbs of Santa Rosa, has accumulated enough strain to produce a 7.1-magnitude earthquake. It is listed with three other fault segments in the Bay Area seismic system that have accumulated significant strain – the Hayward Fault between Suisun Bay and San Jose, the Calaveras Fault from Hollister to Danville and the Green Valley Fault from Vallejo to Fairfield.
“They were charged for an earthquake of the magnitude expected to be significant damage,” Lienkaemper said in 2016.
The research adds to a host of reports and findings that have put the entire Gulf region on alert for the next big step.
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